NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	88		Excitement	5.5 [739]		MVP	Keyon Dooling (MIA): +11.0%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	1.9 [860]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -13.4%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Eric Snow	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	13	48%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	23	53%	-0.01	2	-0.02	12	67%	-0.02
Scott Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	19	50%	-0.06	2	-0.07	8	62%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	8	76%	0.14	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.01	0.04	12	79%	0.12	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	21	51%	0.00	1	-0.02	9	44%	-0.03
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	11	62%	0.06	4	-0.08	10	80%	0.02
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	6	56%	-0.02	5	-0.10	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	2.7	33.0	20.4	29.9	3.0	29.2	146.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.5%

MIA +9.3%

MIA +19.3%

CLE -17.4%

MIA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	17.0	16.5	15.5	103.5	114.9	104.0
season	16.2	15.7		104.6	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.3		101.1	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.6	17.6	16.5	18.6	17.0
MIA	15.7	16.0	15.5	19.3	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	6	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-12	12	17.5	17.0	0.54	17.5	16.4	1.08
Lucious Harris	8	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.02	-1	-11	10	17.1	17.0	0.14	16.3	16.5	-0.18
Robert Traylor	44	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-7	2	16.0	18.0	-1.98	16.4	16.6	-0.22
Eric Snow	46	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	-5	-2	16.9	17.1	-0.24	17.5	15.3	2.18
Jeff McInnis	76	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.16	-6	-6	0	17.1	16.2	0.87	16.4	17.2	-0.80
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	65	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-5	-2	17.3	15.9	1.44	16.0	18.3	-2.33
LeBron James	81	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-4	-4	17.0	16.5	0.52	16.6	15.2	1.30
Sasha Pavlovic	33	36	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	3	-18	16.8	17.1	-0.30	15.4	17.2	-1.79
Drew Gooden	66	66	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.09	-11	-1	-10	17.3	16.1	1.22	16.9	15.2	1.72

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	60	59	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.05	19	-7	26	16.5	16.4	0.18	17.4	16.0	1.39
Udonis Haslem	74	74	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.21	10	2	8	16.2	18.1	-1.86	17.1	16.2	0.94
Eddie Jones	66	64	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.19	9	3	6	15.9	18.3	-2.36	16.7	17.8	-1.01
Keyon Dooling	34	33	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.10	9	3	6	15.9	16.8	-0.91	18.4	16.1	2.28
Shandon Anderson	15	15	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.02	10	2	8	18.1	16.2	1.90	17.1	17.0	0.08
Dwyane Wade	65	64	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.17	1	11	-10	16.7	16.0	0.72	16.8	17.6	-0.76
Damon Jones	53	52	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.04	3	9	-6	16.8	15.9	0.91	16.1	18.4	-2.28
Rasual Butler	28	27	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	8	-4	16.6	16.5	0.11	18.0	16.5	1.47
Michael Doleac	40	37	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	17	-22	16.9	16.1	0.80	16.1	17.7	-1.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.79,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.71,0.63,0.63,0.79,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 86, NJN 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.53,0.64,0.59,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.67,0.79,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.88,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1	93.6%
SAS 94, DET 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1	93.0%
HOU 102, IND 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,1	93.0%