NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	6.7 [509]		MVP	Kareem Rush (CHA): +14.2%
Charlotte Bobcats	101		Comeback	2.1 [813]		LVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): -20.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamond Murray	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	13	60%	0.15	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Donyell Marshall	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	10	55%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Eric Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	83%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	17	51%	0.05	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
Matt Bonner	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	8	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	2	25%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.08
Chris Bosh	-0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2	-0.09	-0.10	0.01	13	45%	-0.13	1	-0.07	14	71%	-0.02

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.10	0.03	18	58%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	11	65%	0.14	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.14	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Bernard Robinson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	11	52%	0.03	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.03
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Sampson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	6	17%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.7	32.2	15.8	24.2	1.7	38.1	135.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +21.8%

CHA +0.5%

CHA +23.0%

CHA +5.9%

TOR -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHA	NBA	TOR	CHA	NBA
this game	13.6	15.9	15.5	95.9	104.1	104.0
season	15.1	15.5		104.8	99.0
opponent	15.1	15.4		105.4	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.5	12.5	13.6	14.0	13.6
CHA	16.2	17.5	17.0	13.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	74	72	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-6	5	13.1	15.5	-2.40	16.3	14.8	1.49
Chris Bosh	80	80	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-8	9	13.3	15.1	-1.80	16.3	14.2	2.10
Morris Peterson	44	44	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	-1	-5	13.6	13.6	-0.01	16.8	15.2	1.58
Jalen Rose	76	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.12	-3	-4	1	13.2	15.3	-2.16	16.1	15.4	0.62
Lamond Murray	40	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.17	-2	-5	3	14.0	13.4	0.60	14.0	17.3	-3.22
Donyell Marshall	46	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.21	-1	-6	5	14.7	12.7	1.98	15.5	16.2	-0.74
Rafael Araujo	48	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	2	-11	12.9	14.3	-1.38	17.4	14.5	2.99
Eric Williams	22	23	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.18	-4	-3	-1	15.3	13.2	2.16	15.4	16.1	-0.62
Matt Bonner	21	20	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.10	-8	1	-9	14.2	13.5	0.76	12.2	16.9	-4.61
Milt Palacio	39	39	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-5	3	14.4	13.2	1.23	15.9	15.9	-0.02

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kareem Rush	72	72	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.32	16	-9	25	15.6	16.7	-1.09	14.3	11.9	2.39
Emeka Okafor	63	63	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.26	9	-2	11	15.0	17.6	-2.68	13.9	13.2	0.64
Jason Kapono	28	29	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	-4	15	13.8	16.8	-2.93	15.4	12.9	2.56
Primoz Brezec	57	58	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	2	3	16.1	15.7	0.35	14.6	12.2	2.35
Keith Bogans	37	40	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.10	5	2	3	13.8	17.2	-3.39	13.1	14.0	-0.83
Jason Hart	69	70	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.17	-1	8	-9	16.8	13.8	2.93	12.7	15.9	-3.20
Bernard Robinson	1	1	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	5	-3	7.0	16.0	-9.00	2.0	13.8	-11.76
Melvin Ely	39	37	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	7	-7	17.3	15.0	2.30	13.5	13.8	-0.29
Gerald Wallace	61	61	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.18	-6	13	-19	16.7	14.6	2.06	13.1	14.5	-1.31
Jamal Sampson	32	32	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.20	-7	14	-21	17.2	15.3	1.91	13.0	14.0	-0.95
Steven Smith	26	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.09	1	6	-5	16.5	15.7	0.86	13.1	13.9	-0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.55,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 98, UTA 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.22,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.84,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.89,0.96,0.98,1	93.6%
UTA 80, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.55,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.4%
SAS 89, MIN 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.85,0.82,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,1	93.0%