NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	88		Excitement	4.0 [1033]		MVP	Fred Jones (IND): +10.1%
Indiana Pacers	76		Comeback	1.3 [464]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -15.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	10	73%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	10	71%	0.07	3	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Ronald Dupree	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	80%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	16	41%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Lindsey Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	13	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	5	14%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.00	8	82%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Reggie Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	44%	0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.03	8	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.03	22	52%	0.02	6	-0.12	8	87%	0.03
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	13	37%	-0.09	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.01	6	14%	-0.09	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	0.1	35.2	19.6	27.8	1.8	33.5	143.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +34.3%

IND -2.7%

DET +9.3%

DET +4.1%

DET +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	IND	NBA	DET	IND	NBA
this game	16.6	16.7	15.5	100.0	89.4	104.0
season	16.7	16.8		103.5	101.9
opponent	15.5	15.9		101.6	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.0	17.3	17.3	18.0	16.6
IND	16.7	17.9	17.8	14.7	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	62	60	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.11	21	-9	30	17.2	15.1	2.13	16.7	16.8	-0.12
Chauncey Billups	73	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	-2	16	16.8	15.5	1.26	17.2	13.9	3.30
Richard Hamilton	65	64	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.15	10	2	8	17.2	15.0	2.20	16.7	16.8	-0.06
Ben Wallace	78	75	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	2	8	16.5	17.0	-0.47	16.8	16.1	0.70
Tayshaun Prince	64	61	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.05	11	1	10	16.8	15.9	0.97	17.1	15.7	1.35
Ronald Dupree	12	11	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	11	-10	16.5	16.6	-0.09	15.1	17.0	-1.87
Carlos Arroyo	38	35	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	11	-10	15.7	17.2	-1.53	15.7	17.4	-1.71
Antonio McDyess	34	33	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.11	-2	14	-16	15.5	17.2	-1.71	16.9	16.6	0.31
Lindsey Hunter	11	11	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	13	-14	14.4	16.9	-2.53	17.0	16.7	0.32
Darvin Ham	3	3	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	17	-22	13.0	16.7	-3.71	10.3	17.0	-6.62

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	3	4	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.17	9	-21	30	11.3	16.9	-5.58	13.0	16.7	-3.75
Scot Pollard	14	13	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	-3	-6	18.3	16.4	1.88	16.5	16.6	-0.05
Eddie Gill	37	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-12	12	16.8	16.6	0.21	15.7	17.2	-1.56
Reggie Miller	48	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.13	-4	-8	4	16.9	16.5	0.41	16.2	17.1	-0.96
Jeff Foster	46	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.24	0	-12	12	17.0	16.4	0.66	15.8	17.6	-1.76
Austin Croshere	33	33	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-6	0	15.3	17.6	-2.26	17.0	16.3	0.62
Jamaal Tinsley	48	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	0	-12	16.6	16.8	-0.21	17.2	15.7	1.56
Jermaine O'Neal	77	80	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-9	-3	-6	16.8	15.5	1.34	16.9	13.4	3.53
Fred Jones	56	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	-1	-10	16.8	16.6	0.20	16.8	16.2	0.68
Stephen Jackson	63	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.08	-18	6	-24	16.8	16.5	0.23	16.9	15.6	1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.06,0.16,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 96, ATL 74	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
GSW 90, NYK 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
PHI 104, NJN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%