NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	82		Excitement	7.7 [332]		MVP	Scott Padgett (HOU): +20.2%
New Orleans Hornets	77		Comeback	8.8 [84]		LVP	Lee Nailon (NOH): -30.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Padgett	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.1,0.2	0.01	0.19	-0.00	6	58%	0.27	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.01	27	55%	0.17	3	-0.10	6	67%	0.04
Dikembe Mutombo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	8	35%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	2	33%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Jon Barry	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.00	6	37%	-0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Bob Sura	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16	-0.15	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.10	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Yao Ming	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21	-0.04	-0.17	-0.01	13	43%	-0.10	1	-0.11	2	0%	-0.07

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1	0.10	0.12	-0.00	0.01	16	68%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	31%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	5	40%	-0.00	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	14	55%	0.04	4	-0.18	3	100%	0.02
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.09,-0.18,-0.3	-0.30	-0.13	-0.17	0.00	21	40%	-0.13	4	-0.17	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	30.4	15.5	22.1	1.8	30.2	125.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +3.5%

HOU +13.2%

HOU +26.1%

HOU +7.8%

NOH -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	NOH	NBA	HOU	NOH	NBA
this game	17.1	17.2	15.5	97.6	91.7	104.0
season	16.0	16.5		104.2	97.7
opponent	15.7	15.8		105.2	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.0	15.6	19.9	16.0	17.1
NOH	16.5	19.4	15.3	17.5	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Padgett	37	36	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.38	14	-9	23	15.9	18.1	-2.17	18.2	16.4	1.87
Yao Ming	60	60	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.44	9	-4	13	17.3	16.6	0.73	17.3	16.8	0.54
Jon Barry	39	39	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.40	9	-4	13	15.9	18.1	-2.21	18.2	16.3	1.82
Tracy McGrady	81	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-4	13	17.1	16.0	1.15	17.2	16.7	0.53
Rod Strickland	34	33	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.09	10	-5	15	17.9	16.6	1.35	19.8	15.5	4.25
Bob Sura	50	51	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.26	-5	10	-15	16.6	17.9	-1.35	15.5	19.8	-4.25
Ryan Bowen	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	5	-5	0.0	17.3	-17.31	6.0	17.3	-11.31
Dikembe Mutombo	23	23	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.08	-4	9	-13	17.3	17.0	0.27	17.3	17.1	0.11
David Wesley	48	48	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.02	-8	13	-21	18.0	15.9	2.08	16.4	18.3	-1.92
Juwan Howard	47	48	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.03	-9	14	-23	18.1	15.9	2.17	16.4	18.2	-1.87

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	41	40	0.38	-0.88	1.25	0.23	5	-10	15	17.1	17.3	-0.16	16.8	17.4	-0.63
J.R. Smith	42	41	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-4	3	19.0	15.3	3.74	16.7	17.5	-0.78
Lee Nailon	71	71	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.44	9	-14	23	16.4	21.3	-4.89	17.1	17.4	-0.33
Bostjan Nachbar	13	13	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.09	-14	9	-23	21.3	16.4	4.89	17.4	17.1	0.33
Casey Jacobsen	52	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-4	3	16.6	18.2	-1.58	17.1	17.2	-0.09
P.J. Brown	78	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-3	1	17.2	16.5	0.73	17.1	17.3	-0.19
Dan Dickau	74	74	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.35	-8	3	-11	16.5	21.9	-5.36	17.4	15.3	2.05
Rodney Rogers	49	51	-0.96	0.46	-1.41	-0.58	-13	8	-21	17.2	17.2	-0.04	17.4	16.7	0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.59,0.56,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.55,0.75,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 101, DAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.45,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.79,0.77,0.73,0	92.6%
MIN 97, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.84,0	91.6%
GSW 100, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.89,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.8,0.91,0.93,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.42,0	91.6%