NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	6.3 [588]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +27.0%
Charlotte Bobcats	99		Comeback	1.9 [329]		LVP	Kareem Rush (CHA): -22.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.19,0.27	0.13	0.14	0.00	11	77%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.19	0.11	0.07	-0.00	14	67%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	9	70%	0.13	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.08
Alan Henderson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.01	-0.03	12	39%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	4	44%	-0.06	1	-0.03	10	60%	-0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	22	40%	-0.08	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.03

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.01,0.08,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.10	-0.02	11	56%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.01	18	59%	0.03	1	-0.01	5	40%	-0.05
Bernard Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Sampson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	10	65%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	7	21%	-0.08	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.15	-0.09	-0.01	18	29%	-0.19	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	1.8	25.2	16.5	23.7	2.7	39.2	136.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +44.9%

DAL +14.9%

CHA -13.5%

DAL +0.5%

DAL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CHA	NBA	DAL	CHA	NBA
this game	15.4	15.2	15.5	111.7	105.3	104.0
season	14.9	15.5		108.2	99.0
opponent	15.1	15.5		105.4	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.3	15.3	17.4	16.4	15.4
CHA	13.3	16.0	17.8	14.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerry Stackhouse	50	50	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.17	15	-9	24	16.0	14.8	1.21	15.0	15.5	-0.56
Jason Terry	82	81	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.28	9	-3	12	15.9	12.2	3.63	15.5	13.2	2.31
Michael Finley	79	78	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.27	5	1	4	15.7	14.0	1.68	15.6	13.6	1.93
Alan Henderson	43	47	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.17	6	0	6	15.9	15.0	0.91	15.6	14.9	0.74
Erick Dampier	41	40	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.26	-1	7	-8	15.8	15.1	0.73	15.4	15.1	0.31
Shawn Bradley	23	22	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.09	10	-4	14	13.7	16.0	-2.22	14.5	15.4	-0.89
Dirk Nowitzki	78	77	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.31	-4	10	-14	15.8	13.7	2.01	15.3	14.8	0.49
Josh Howard	62	62	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.20	-7	13	-20	14.2	17.8	-3.59	14.8	16.1	-1.37
Devin Harris	12	13	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	9	-12	12.2	15.9	-3.63	13.2	15.5	-2.31

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wallace	49	51	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.11	8	-14	22	16.0	14.4	1.58	15.6	15.2	0.42
Melvin Ely	9	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-6	6	13.2	15.4	-2.21	9.1	16.0	-6.88
Jason Kapono	34	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-9	12	12.9	16.6	-3.71	14.5	15.9	-1.48
Bernard Robinson	11	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-4	2	13.7	15.4	-1.69	9.7	16.2	-6.44
Emeka Okafor	78	80	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.30	8	-14	22	15.4	14.2	1.17	15.8	13.1	2.75
Steven Smith	24	24	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-9	12	15.6	15.1	0.54	16.6	15.0	1.57
Primoz Brezec	69	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.21	-1	-5	4	15.2	15.3	-0.08	16.1	13.5	2.58
Kareem Rush	66	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-2	-2	15.7	14.2	1.49	15.9	14.3	1.60
Jason Hart	70	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	1	-8	15.3	15.1	0.19	15.9	13.8	2.10
Keith Bogans	28	26	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.07	-19	13	-32	15.9	15.0	0.90	15.0	15.6	-0.63
Jamal Sampson	32	31	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.14	-19	13	-32	15.3	15.2	0.18	14.5	15.9	-1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.27,0.24,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.21,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.32,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 111, CLE 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.33,0.39,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.17,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.0%
PHI 100, DEN 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.07,0.09,0.16,0	92.5%
BOS 92, NYK 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.05,0,0,0.02,0	92.5%