NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	105		Excitement	8.3 [229]		MVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): +41.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	103		Comeback	17.3 [45]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -16.5%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.41	-0.04	0.43	-0.02	14	55%	0.45	2	-0.03	14	86%	0.08
Juan Dixon	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.29	0.09	0.20	-0.00	5	100%	0.31	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.06
Laron Profit	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.00	4	87%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	18	55%	0.10	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.04
Brendan Haywood	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	5	69%	0.05	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Michael Ruffin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Etan Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.07
Gilbert Arenas	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	19	43%	-0.04	4	-0.12	8	75%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.27	0.27	0.03	0.25	0.01	17	54%	0.29	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	6	65%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	6	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	79%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Erick Strickland	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	12	57%	0.05	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	12	56%	0.02	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.04
Joe Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	6	33%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.14	0.00	5	60%	0.05	2	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	27.6	15.5	31.9	1.7	40.3	141.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +27.2%

WAS +9.6%

MIL -13.5%

WAS +27.7%

MIL -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	15.4	15.5	109.4	106.2	104.0
season	14.7	16.0		104.7	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.5		107.4	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	11.6	16.9	16.9	13.2	14.5
MIL	14.1	15.8	14.4	17.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juan Dixon	25	27	0.94	-0.44	1.38	0.68	9	-7	16	14.6	14.4	0.23	17.0	14.7	2.26
Brendan Haywood	60	61	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.72	6	-4	10	13.9	15.4	-1.52	15.1	15.8	-0.65
Larry Hughes	83	84	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.46	2	0	2	13.9	18.3	-4.44	14.9	18.4	-3.48
Gilbert Arenas	85	84	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	-2	6	14.6	13.3	1.35	15.1	16.8	-1.70
Antawn Jamison	87	88	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.46	-1	3	-4	14.1	17.7	-3.53	15.8	11.3	4.45
Michael Ruffin	30	33	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	-3	8	13.7	14.8	-1.12	16.1	15.0	1.14
Etan Thomas	33	33	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	-1	4	15.2	14.1	1.09	15.1	15.5	-0.47
Laron Profit	16	17	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.03	-1	3	-4	16.8	14.0	2.81	13.4	15.8	-2.38
Jared Jeffries	66	65	-0.85	1.35	-2.19	-0.46	-13	15	-28	15.0	13.2	1.80	15.5	15.1	0.41

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Van Horn	35	34	0.25	-0.75	0.99	0.19	2	-4	6	15.7	15.2	0.58	15.6	13.9	1.73
Dan Gadzuric	48	49	0.19	-0.69	0.89	0.13	2	-4	6	14.6	16.1	-1.44	13.9	15.1	-1.25
Joe Smith	58	57	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.13	-1	-1	0	14.5	16.6	-2.12	13.9	15.2	-1.28
Mike James	39	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	1	-4	16.4	14.7	1.78	14.6	14.4	0.16
Zaza Pachulia	48	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-2	2	16.4	14.3	2.07	15.1	13.9	1.25
Mo Williams	58	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.40	1	-3	4	14.7	16.4	-1.78	14.4	14.6	-0.16
Michael Redd	78	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.40	-2	0	-2	14.7	18.3	-3.60	14.0	16.5	-2.57
Erick Strickland	1	0	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.37	-4	2	-6	0.0	15.5	-15.53	0.0	14.5	-14.47
Desmond Mason	82	82	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-1	0	15.7	13.4	2.33	14.5	14.1	0.38
Marcus Fizer	38	38	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.77	-4	2	-6	17.0	14.3	2.68	15.2	14.0	1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.87,0.9,0.72,0.33,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 106, WAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.75,0.71,0.43,0.17,0	93.8%
IND 85, LAC 82	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.34,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.63,0.43,0.15,0	91.9%
HOU 100, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.28,0.22,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.81,0.64,0.22,0.09,0	89.9%