NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	9.7 [88]		MVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): +90.3%
Utah Jazz	97		Comeback	7.5 [207]		LVP	Keith McLeod (UTA): -18.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.11	0.00	5	86%	0.20	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Brent Barry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.00	12	62%	0.17	2	-0.18	5	100%	0.05
Tony Parker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	11	62%	0.06	3	-0.07	10	50%	-0.08
Devin Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	17	55%	-0.04	3	-0.09	10	80%	-0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.25,0.9	0.90	0.08	0.82	-0.00	11	72%	0.95	1	-0.05	10	90%	0.05
Gordan Giricek	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	10	62%	0.11	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raul Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.07	-0.00	8	62%	0.03	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Curtis Borchardt	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.07	-0.01	10	54%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.00	-0.11	0.02	7	50%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith McLeod	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,-0.18	-0.18	0.04	-0.21	0.01	10	64%	-0.15	1	-0.03	8	87%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	26.2	14.8	26.0	2.4	36.8	134.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +10.6%

UTA +10.9%

UTA +8.1%

UTA +14.0%

UTA +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	17.4	18.8	15.5	118.5	124.4	104.0
season	16.3	16.7		105.8	102.3
opponent	15.1	15.6		106.7	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.9	17.1	19.3	17.9	17.4
UTA	18.6	19.9	20.7	16.4	18.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	33	33	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.01	3	-4	7	17.3	17.6	-0.29	17.9	19.5	-1.61
Rasho Nesterovic	51	49	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	1	-3	17.2	17.8	-0.62	20.3	16.3	3.92
Devin Brown	14	12	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	6	-13	14.8	18.0	-3.21	18.7	18.8	-0.17
Malik Rose	14	12	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	6	-13	14.8	18.0	-3.21	18.7	18.8	-0.17
Beno Udrih	19	19	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	6	-13	16.6	17.7	-1.13	18.9	18.8	0.12
Tony Parker	62	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.45	6	-7	13	17.7	16.6	1.13	18.8	18.9	-0.12
Robert Horry	35	35	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.44	5	-6	11	18.3	16.8	1.48	16.2	20.9	-4.73
Bruce Bowen	63	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.55	3	-4	7	17.9	15.9	1.93	19.3	16.8	2.51
Manu Ginobili	52	49	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.48	-1	0	-1	17.7	16.9	0.85	18.8	18.8	0.02
Tim Duncan	62	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.58	2	-3	5	17.8	16.4	1.34	19.2	17.6	1.56

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith McLeod	48	52	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.51	4	-3	7	18.3	19.6	-1.29	16.6	19.0	-2.37
Carlos Boozer	39	42	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.53	1	0	1	17.8	19.8	-2.08	17.3	17.6	-0.28
Mehmet Okur	60	61	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	0	1	18.6	19.4	-0.76	17.6	16.8	0.79
Howard Eisley	56	56	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.45	-2	3	-5	17.6	21.8	-4.19	17.5	17.3	0.18
Gordan Giricek	37	40	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	-3	7	19.8	17.9	1.86	18.6	16.3	2.23
Kirk Snyder	46	48	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.48	-8	9	-17	19.4	17.9	1.48	17.9	16.8	1.16
Curtis Borchardt	47	50	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	-5	11	20.0	16.9	3.11	16.4	19.1	-2.73
Kris Humphries	20	20	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	-3	7	18.3	19.0	-0.68	17.5	17.4	0.14
Carlos Arroyo	3	3	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	1	-1	19.7	18.8	0.89	13.0	17.6	-4.62
Raul Lopez	34	33	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.05	-5	6	-11	19.6	18.2	1.38	18.4	16.8	1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.85,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 88, DET 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.48,0.32,0.47,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.78,0.53,1	93.1%
NYK 97, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.81,0.84,0.69,0.74,1	92.9%
ATL 101, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.82,1	92.1%