NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	116		Excitement	5.0 [844]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +9.0%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	1.0 [653]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -12.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	16	54%	0.12	2	-0.03	7	100%	0.05
Dikembe Mutombo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.15	-0.01	0.09	26	68%	0.14	3	-0.10	14	71%	-0.01
David Wesley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	60%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.01	0.02	10	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Barrett	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	6	57%	0.02	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.05	5	110%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	53%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	11	50%	0.02	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	7	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	7	44%	-0.05	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.05	0.03	13	50%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	20	51%	-0.04	4	-0.08	13	85%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.0	32.0	15.7	32.5	2.4	27.6	136.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +44.6%

DEN -5.1%

HOU +0.6%

HOU +4.5%

HOU +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	15.5	122.1	104.3	104.0
season	16.0	14.8		104.2	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.8		102.3	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.2	17.3	15.8	16.8	15.7
DEN	13.5	12.7	16.2	17.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	82	81	0.66	-0.16	0.81	-0.17	28	-10	38	15.4	17.3	-1.91	15.4	11.2	4.15
Yao Ming	69	67	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.19	22	-4	26	15.3	16.7	-1.36	16.0	12.0	3.99
Maurice Taylor	54	52	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	13	5	8	17.0	13.9	3.10	14.6	15.1	-0.48
Bob Sura	56	56	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.09	14	4	10	14.3	17.6	-3.31	15.6	13.6	2.02
Jon Barry	40	39	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.01	11	7	4	17.8	14.1	3.73	15.1	14.6	0.46
Andre Barrett	39	37	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	12	-6	17.6	14.3	3.31	13.8	15.5	-1.73
David Wesley	55	56	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.01	5	13	-8	14.1	17.8	-3.73	14.5	15.3	-0.76
Juwan Howard	41	42	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	13	-8	13.9	17.0	-3.10	15.1	14.6	0.48
Dikembe Mutombo	26	27	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	22	-26	16.7	15.3	1.36	12.0	16.0	-3.99
Ryan Bowen	13	13	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.14	-10	28	-38	17.3	15.4	1.91	11.2	15.4	-4.15

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryon Russell	24	22	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.16	7	-25	32	11.2	16.0	-4.83	16.5	15.4	1.09
Francisco Elson	9	9	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-19	20	14.8	14.8	-0.03	16.3	15.6	0.74
DerMarr Johnson	40	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.22	-11	-7	-4	15.5	14.3	1.25	15.8	15.5	0.29
Rodney White	9	9	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-13	8	18.2	14.4	3.78	17.0	15.5	1.48
Carmelo Anthony	78	79	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.13	-14	-4	-10	14.6	15.7	-1.06	15.6	15.9	-0.25
Andre Miller	73	73	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-12	6	14.8	15.0	-0.25	15.2	17.3	-2.15
Nene	52	51	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-16	14	14.5	15.2	-0.73	15.5	15.9	-0.37
Marcus Camby	57	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.28	-22	4	-26	15.3	14.1	1.24	15.3	16.3	-1.08
Earl Boykins	54	56	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	-7	-4	14.3	15.5	-1.25	16.9	13.9	2.95
Kenyon Martin	74	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	0.13	-27	9	-36	15.7	11.6	4.01	15.1	17.6	-2.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 118, MIN 106	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.19,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.2%
MIA 83, BOS 75	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.21,0.11,0.05,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.5%
MEM 93, NOH 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.09,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0	92.4%