NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	98		Excitement	3.8 [1070]		MVP	Rick Brunson (LAC): +10.7%
Los Angeles Clippers	79		Comeback	2.3 [261]		LVP	Bobby Simmons (LAC): -9.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	5	58%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	7	64%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.02	18	61%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Brent Barry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.03	9	55%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.04	5	80%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	12	66%	0.06	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.01
Mike Wilks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.02	-0.05	13	61%	0.14	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Penney	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	13	47%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	12	53%	-0.00	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.04
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lionel Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	13	38%	-0.02	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	28.4	15.5	26.9	1.8	26.3	125.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +31.3%

SAS +4.8%

LAC -1.5%

SAS +15.3%

SAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAC	NBA	SAS	LAC	NBA
this game	15.6	17.0	15.5	110.1	89.8	104.0
season	16.3	16.0		105.8	103.0
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.8	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.7	15.6	15.3	14.6	15.6
LAC	15.3	16.5	18.2	18.1	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	47	45	0.68	-0.18	0.86	-0.20	30	-11	41	15.3	15.8	-0.51	17.9	16.0	1.89
Bruce Bowen	57	57	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.03	19	0	19	15.7	15.3	0.44	17.4	16.2	1.28
Rasho Nesterovic	51	51	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.01	18	1	17	14.9	16.4	-1.45	17.0	17.0	-0.02
Tim Duncan	64	62	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.07	18	1	17	16.3	13.6	2.78	17.7	15.2	2.50
Beno Udrih	24	24	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	9	1	15.9	15.4	0.49	18.4	16.5	1.96
Tony Parker	65	64	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	10	-1	15.4	15.9	-0.49	16.5	18.4	-1.96
Malik Rose	27	26	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.08	5	14	-9	15.6	15.5	0.10	16.0	17.4	-1.35
Mike Wilks	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	18	-17	11.7	15.7	-4.03	16.7	17.0	-0.33
Tony Massenburg	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	19	-19	10.6	15.9	-5.26	14.4	17.1	-2.74
Robert Horry	31	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	22	-25	15.7	15.5	0.23	16.7	17.1	-0.38
Brent Barry	48	48	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.08	-5	24	-29	15.4	15.8	-0.36	16.6	17.5	-0.89
Devin Brown	23	23	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	26	-33	16.5	15.2	1.29	15.0	17.7	-2.75

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeljko Rebraca	42	42	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.10	5	-24	29	16.9	17.1	-0.25	16.2	15.0	1.19
Kirk Penney	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-18	17	16.7	17.0	-0.33	11.7	15.7	-4.03
Chris Wilcox	8	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-17	15	17.0	17.0	0.01	13.3	15.8	-2.48
Lionel Chalmers	18	19	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.09	-4	-15	11	15.4	17.4	-1.94	14.5	15.8	-1.32
Quinton Ross	29	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.05	-9	-10	1	17.4	16.8	0.63	16.1	15.3	0.74
Mikki Moore	31	32	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	-9	-1	18.5	16.1	2.41	14.2	16.4	-2.19
Elton Brand	64	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-14	9	16.8	17.6	-0.82	16.3	13.6	2.65
Corey Maggette	79	81	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.02	-13	-6	-7	16.6	20.8	-4.22	15.7	13.9	1.85
Chris Kaman	38	39	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.03	-17	-2	-15	15.9	17.8	-1.93	14.8	16.2	-1.41
Rick Brunson	72	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.03	-17	-2	-15	17.4	15.2	2.20	15.8	14.7	1.05
Bobby Simmons	56	56	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.13	-22	3	-25	17.6	15.9	1.70	15.8	15.2	0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 98, ATL 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.28,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
LAL 103, NOH 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
GSW 112, WAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.37,0.28,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%