NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	111		Excitement	6.8 [476]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +20.7%
Orlando Magic	105		Comeback	1.1 [555]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -24.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.17	0.04	-0.00	19	69%	0.21	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	11	62%	0.11	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	-0.01	-0.03	9	68%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	14	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Eddie House	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
Mike James	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	9	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Zendon Hamilton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	9	37%	-0.10	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.07	0.02	12	54%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	11	68%	0.08	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	7	65%	0.09	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Grant Hill	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	20	60%	0.06	6	-0.16	3	67%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	7	14%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.09	0.02	7	57%	-0.02	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.07	-0.16	0.01	15	57%	-0.03	5	-0.22	12	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	24.1	16.5	29.4	1.7	41.2	138.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +15.9%

MIL +0.1%

ORL -13.2%

MIL +50.0%

ORL -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.5	15.5	113.3	108.2	104.0
season	16.0	14.3		104.4	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.0		105.1	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.8	17.5	15.4	15.0	15.1
ORL	14.4	16.0	14.0	13.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	83	82	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.29	20	-14	34	14.5	18.3	-3.88	15.0	11.9	3.10
Dan Gadzuric	66	64	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-7	20	14.7	15.7	-1.04	15.3	12.9	2.43
Mo Williams	57	58	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	-3	12	14.6	15.7	-1.09	15.0	13.7	1.24
Zaza Pachulia	74	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	-4	14	15.7	13.0	2.72	14.5	14.4	0.15
Desmond Mason	86	85	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.26	1	5	-4	14.5	18.9	-4.41	14.4	15.0	-0.59
Marcus Fizer	33	34	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.18	-3	9	-12	19.0	13.0	5.95	15.2	14.1	1.11
Mike James	43	42	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	9	-12	15.0	15.1	-0.09	13.6	15.2	-1.57
Eddie House	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	7	-8	1.2	15.6	-14.39	3.3	14.8	-11.51
Zendon Hamilton	10	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	10	-14	17.3	14.8	2.50	14.8	14.4	0.38
Kendall Gill	34	33	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.19	-12	18	-30	15.0	15.1	-0.03	12.2	15.7	-3.44

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	19	20	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-10	14	13.0	14.8	-1.85	19.0	14.0	5.02
Stacey Augmon	17	17	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-11	16	14.6	14.4	0.20	18.9	14.2	4.71
Hedo Turkoglu	40	40	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-11	16	12.9	15.6	-2.70	14.3	15.6	-1.23
Pat Garrity	42	40	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-9	12	12.6	15.9	-3.37	14.5	15.4	-0.93
Tony Battie	71	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-5	4	15.4	11.9	3.55	16.1	12.2	3.94
Grant Hill	78	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	1	-8	14.6	14.2	0.41	14.9	15.7	-0.75
Cuttino Mobley	65	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.16	-12	6	-18	14.7	14.1	0.58	13.2	18.9	-5.68
Dwight Howard	71	72	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.14	-15	9	-24	15.5	11.7	3.76	15.2	14.6	0.59
Steve Francis	82	83	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.25	-12	6	-18	14.6	13.7	0.89	14.5	18.3	-3.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.11,0.11,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 96, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.05,0,0,0	93.4%
IND 105, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.28,0.2,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.19,0.02,0.02,0,0	93.4%
LAL 97, UTA 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0	93.4%