NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	91		Excitement	7.9 [293]		MVP	Jeff McInnis (CLE): +17.2%
Cleveland Cavaliers	100		Comeback	4.2 [478]		LVP	David Wesley (NOH): -23.8%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.09	-0.02	-0.04	11	64%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	10	46%	0.02	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Lee Nailon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.02	-0.05	-0.02	14	56%	0.04	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
Corsley Edwards	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Matt Freije	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	16	37%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	20%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	9	52%	-0.09	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.13
David Wesley	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	16	37%	-0.04	4	-0.20	6	83%	0.02

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.01	0.15	-0.01	12	55%	0.18	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.03
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	10	67%	0.17	2	-0.14	7	57%	-0.01
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	8	53%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Ira Newble	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	57%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.01	7	61%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.12,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	16	54%	-0.02	5	-0.13	9	89%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.0	28.1	15.3	27.5	1.8	37.2	133.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +47.9%

CLE +13.0%

NOH -17.9%

CLE +4.3%

CLE +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	CLE	NBA	NOH	CLE	NBA
this game	17.3	14.9	15.5	102.2	111.1	104.0
season	16.5	16.2		97.7	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.7		103.9	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.9	17.8	17.6	16.8	17.3
CLE	14.4	15.0	15.1	15.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Freije	71	72	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.14	2	-11	13	17.3	17.1	0.25	15.0	14.7	0.33
Corsley Edwards	39	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.11	2	-11	13	16.9	17.6	-0.69	16.1	14.0	2.05
J.R. Smith	19	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-6	3	17.8	17.1	0.74	14.8	15.0	-0.13
Baron Davis	34	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.23	2	-11	13	16.6	17.7	-1.13	16.6	13.9	2.70
Lee Nailon	70	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-3	-3	17.1	17.8	-0.74	15.0	14.8	0.13
Dan Dickau	70	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.07	-15	6	-21	16.9	18.4	-1.48	14.9	14.9	0.05
P.J. Brown	63	63	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.33	-13	4	-17	17.7	16.2	1.45	14.3	16.4	-2.16
David Wesley	79	78	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.35	-14	5	-19	17.6	14.2	3.45	14.1	20.7	-6.62

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff McInnis	74	73	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-4	17	14.1	18.6	-4.49	17.1	18.2	-1.13
Drew Gooden	67	66	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-4	17	14.7	15.5	-0.73	17.8	15.6	2.22
LeBron James	85	84	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.25	8	1	7	14.8	18.0	-3.25	17.2	18.2	-1.00
Eric Snow	35	35	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	-1	11	16.2	14.1	2.12	17.7	17.0	0.75
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	56	57	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	-1	11	14.2	16.2	-2.00	17.5	16.9	0.60
Robert Traylor	34	32	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	10	-11	16.2	14.2	2.00	16.9	17.5	-0.60
Lucious Harris	42	40	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.09	1	8	-7	15.5	14.5	1.02	17.0	17.4	-0.42
Anderson Varejao	23	23	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	13	-17	15.5	14.7	0.73	15.6	17.8	-2.22
Ira Newble	34	35	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.03	-5	14	-19	15.1	14.8	0.30	17.6	17.0	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.8,0.8,0.69,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.58,0.52,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.76,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 90, MIL 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.64,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.71,0.78,0.92,1	90.3%
NYK 87, IND 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.83,0.85,1	89.8%
GSW 108, HOU 116	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.69,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.54,0.62,0.43,0.37,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.86,0.99,1	89.8%