NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	75		Excitement	9.5 [95]		MVP	Damon Stoudamire (POR): +12.6%
Detroit Pistons	74		Comeback	1.7 [361]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -40.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Stoudamire	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	9	67%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.06
Darius Miles	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	9	65%	0.10	4	-0.08	2	50%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	10	48%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	10	54%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Derek Anderson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	6	50%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15	-0.02	-0.12	0.00	4	50%	-0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.07
Zach Randolph	-0.40	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4	-0.25	-0.16	-0.02	23	26%	-0.20	5	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	14	54%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	8	59%	0.06	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.04
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	0.00	15	46%	0.01	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.06
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	19	42%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24	-0.24	-0.07	-0.19	-0.02	7	31%	-0.15	1	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.23,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.34,-0.34,-0.41,-0.41,-0.41,-0.41	-0.41	-0.23	-0.19	-0.01	22	22%	-0.39	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.4	30.5	16.3	22.6	2.5	42.7	142.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +32.2%

POR +43.9%

DET -32.9%

POR +0.3%

POR +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DET	NBA	POR	DET	NBA
this game	16.3	17.2	15.5	87.2	86.0	104.0
season	15.8	16.7		101.2	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.7	17.9	14.6	16.9	16.3
DET	18.6	17.2	18.1	15.1	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	65	64	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.40	14	-13	27	15.7	17.9	-2.17	17.3	17.1	0.17
Derek Anderson	60	59	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.51	6	-5	11	15.4	18.2	-2.76	17.5	16.7	0.81
Theo Ratliff	79	79	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	0	1	16.1	18.1	-2.04	16.9	20.6	-3.65
Ruben Patterson	53	55	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.32	-2	3	-5	17.7	14.0	3.73	16.5	18.4	-1.87
Zach Randolph	70	69	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	-3	7	16.1	16.9	-0.75	17.5	16.1	1.38
Darius Miles	61	61	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.52	-10	11	-21	15.5	18.2	-2.67	17.2	17.2	0.03
Damon Stoudamire	31	33	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	4	-7	18.0	15.3	2.66	17.4	17.1	0.28
Joel Przybilla	6	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	3	-5	20.0	16.0	4.01	22.5	16.8	5.67
Travis Outlaw	5	4	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	4	-7	17.0	16.2	0.78	13.7	17.4	-3.64

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	3	3	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.00	2	-3	5	14.0	17.3	-3.34	15.0	16.3	-1.31
Ronald Dupree	6	6	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-3	5	19.5	17.0	2.45	24.2	15.7	8.49
Antonio McDyess	33	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	2	-5	18.8	16.2	2.54	16.8	16.0	0.80
Richard Hamilton	74	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.55	9	-10	19	16.7	20.5	-3.81	16.6	13.3	3.28
Tayshaun Prince	73	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.33	1	-2	3	16.6	20.5	-3.82	15.8	19.0	-3.22
Chauncey Billups	72	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.47	4	-5	9	16.8	19.4	-2.64	16.4	15.9	0.48
Ben Wallace	73	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.35	-1	0	-1	17.2	17.3	-0.10	16.0	17.6	-1.67
Lindsey Hunter	26	25	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.01	-19	18	-37	19.9	16.0	3.87	15.0	16.8	-1.84
Rasheed Wallace	70	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.59	0	-1	1	17.0	18.0	-0.96	16.2	16.5	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.62,0.48,0.53,0.47,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 81, NJN 76	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.26,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.72,0.45,0.17,0	91.1%
MIL 90, CHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.23,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.47,0.31,0.43,0.45,0.15,0	91.0%
UTA 113, SAC 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.27,0.39,0.37,0.57,0.42,0	90.5%