NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	91		Excitement	7.5 [364]		MVP	Malik Rose (SAS): +8.4%
San Antonio Spurs	94		Comeback	10.9 [203]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -21.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	78%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Bradley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Kasun	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	16	51%	0.00	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	8	44%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11	0.04	-0.14	0.01	16	58%	0.00	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Steve Francis	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.08,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	19	43%	-0.12	1	-0.04	9	100%	0.07
Dwight Howard	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.13	-0.09	-0.01	7	40%	-0.02	4	-0.19	6	100%	0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	6	75%	0.14	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	13	61%	0.13	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.10	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	10	52%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.05
Mike Wilks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	21	50%	-0.03	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.04
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.03	4	18%	-0.08	3	-0.06	3	0%	-0.04
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	15	43%	-0.03	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.7	30.0	15.8	29.2	1.7	34.6	137.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +53.4%

ORL -13.6%

SAS +5.7%

SAS +7.5%

ORL -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.4	16.5	15.5	97.8	101.1	104.0
season	14.3	16.3		102.9	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		98.4	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.7	15.0	13.3	14.8	14.4
SAS	16.7	16.3	16.7	16.5	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Bradley	28	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	0	-3	14.6	14.3	0.30	16.9	16.4	0.55
Dwight Howard	51	52	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.04	-2	-1	-1	15.3	13.4	1.83	16.4	16.8	-0.39
Mario Kasun	9	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.08	-7	4	-11	16.0	14.3	1.74	13.7	16.8	-3.05
Pat Garrity	5	6	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-2	1	10.6	14.6	-4.05	20.2	16.3	3.88
Stacey Augmon	8	7	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	3	-9	16.0	14.3	1.72	17.4	16.5	0.96
Tony Battie	80	80	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.41	6	-9	15	14.4	14.7	-0.30	16.4	17.5	-1.16
Jameer Nelson	11	13	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	6	-15	11.8	14.8	-2.96	18.9	16.1	2.77
Steve Francis	82	80	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.43	6	-9	15	14.8	11.8	2.96	16.1	18.9	-2.77
Cuttino Mobley	78	79	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.49	7	-10	17	14.4	14.6	-0.20	16.4	17.4	-1.05
Hedo Turkoglu	43	41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	1	-5	14.3	14.5	-0.15	16.5	16.6	-0.05
Grant Hill	70	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-1	-1	13.8	16.4	-2.66	16.8	15.6	1.19

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	38	37	1.07	-0.57	1.64	0.45	21	-18	39	16.3	16.7	-0.42	14.5	14.4	0.18
Manu Ginobili	65	67	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.42	10	-7	17	15.7	18.4	-2.71	15.2	12.5	2.73
Devin Brown	63	62	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.48	7	-4	11	17.1	15.3	1.83	13.7	15.9	-2.26
Malik Rose	47	49	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	-6	15	17.3	15.7	1.58	14.5	14.4	0.13
Tim Duncan	74	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	0	3	16.8	15.5	1.34	14.3	14.9	-0.58
Brent Barry	4	3	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	3	-3	17.7	16.5	1.27	12.3	14.5	-2.17
Robert Horry	7	8	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	2	-1	14.0	16.7	-2.74	16.5	14.2	2.26
Rasho Nesterovic	52	50	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.06	-2	5	-7	15.8	17.4	-1.57	14.6	14.2	0.41
Bruce Bowen	60	59	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.06	-16	19	-35	16.7	16.3	0.36	14.1	15.0	-0.85
Tony Parker	55	56	-0.57	1.07	-1.64	-0.04	-18	21	-39	16.7	16.3	0.42	14.4	14.5	-0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.25,0.17,0.27,0.3,0.4,0.33,0.62,0.63,0.87,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 110, SAS 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.41,0.35,0.54,0.45,0.64,0.67,0.98,1	90.8%
NJN 87, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.41,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.6,0.53,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.73,1	89.8%
ATL 101, WAS 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.52,0.35,0.23,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.34,0.67,0.79,0.86,0.96,1	89.6%