NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	9.4 [104]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +28.4%
Boston Celtics	99		Comeback	3.6 [222]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -31.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,0.02,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.28	-0.04	0.33	0.01	20	53%	0.42	4	-0.14	7	86%	0.06
Marcus Camby	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.06	0.01	9	64%	0.11	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.03
Earl Boykins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	8	47%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Bryon Russell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	2	75%	0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,-0.06	0.00	-0.04	0.02	12	63%	0.05	3	-0.11	6	50%	-0.07
Kenyon Martin	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	19	45%	0.06	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.01	7	64%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	3	57%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	5	42%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	10	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	11	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	16	49%	-0.02	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.05
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	11	42%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.06
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,-0.31	-0.31	-0.02	-0.27	0.03	22	53%	-0.22	2	-0.09	14	71%	0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	0.8	27.4	17.6	30.2	3.3	36.5	139.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +114.2%

BOS -36.2%

BOS -16.6%

BOS -26.1%

DEN +14.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	15.6	13.5	15.5	100.0	101.0	104.0
season	14.8	14.4		103.8	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.6		104.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	13.8	16.0	16.3	15.6
BOS	12.4	14.4	12.7	14.4	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryon Russell	43	43	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.37	12	-11	23	15.9	15.3	0.65	14.8	12.5	2.32
Andre Miller	77	74	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.71	-4	5	-9	15.9	14.5	1.35	12.8	15.6	-2.75
Kenyon Martin	91	88	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.59	0	1	-1	15.6	15.4	0.13	13.1	16.7	-3.55
Francisco Elson	27	27	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.22	16	-15	31	14.5	16.0	-1.48	16.0	12.5	3.49
Carmelo Anthony	82	80	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.57	-13	14	-27	15.5	15.9	-0.47	13.0	15.9	-2.91
Marcus Camby	82	81	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.57	-14	15	-29	15.9	14.0	1.90	13.1	15.6	-2.59
DerMarr Johnson	25	25	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.06	6	-5	11	14.9	15.8	-0.91	15.1	13.0	2.16
Greg Buckner	38	36	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	0	1	16.0	15.3	0.71	12.4	14.2	-1.77
Earl Boykins	35	36	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.19	1	0	1	14.6	16.1	-1.43	14.5	12.9	1.61

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jiri Welsch	51	52	0.28	-0.78	1.07	-0.24	18	-19	37	12.8	14.3	-1.43	16.5	14.5	1.96
Raef LaFrentz	64	64	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.40	16	-17	33	12.9	14.7	-1.79	15.7	15.2	0.48
Tony Allen	22	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.23	-9	8	-17	15.6	12.9	2.74	16.0	15.4	0.51
Al Jefferson	29	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.17	-13	12	-25	14.7	13.0	1.63	15.0	15.8	-0.76
Walter McCarty	30	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	6	-13	14.5	13.1	1.47	16.0	15.4	0.59
Marcus Banks	13	14	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.09	-13	12	-25	16.0	13.1	2.87	13.4	15.9	-2.48
Mark Blount	73	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-3	5	13.2	14.5	-1.30	15.5	15.8	-0.39
Gary Payton	72	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.70	6	-7	13	12.9	15.2	-2.29	15.7	15.1	0.56
Paul Pierce	76	79	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.70	6	-7	13	12.9	15.6	-2.74	15.5	15.9	-0.44
Ricky Davis	60	60	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.33	-11	10	-21	14.3	12.3	1.99	15.0	16.3	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.53,0.25,0.16,0.06,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 120, SAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.54,0.14,0.06,0.01,0,0	91.8%
SAC 100, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.54,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.59,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.11,0.15,0.08,0	91.2%
DEN 113, HOU 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.6,0.38,0.21,0.1,0.1,0	91.1%