NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	102		Excitement	3.3 [1158]		MVP	Andre Miller (DEN): +7.1%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	1.1 [1167]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -14.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.00	0.05	12	63%	0.03	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.03
Grant Hill	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	11	71%	0.05	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Kelvin Cato	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.01	15	59%	0.01	3	-0.03	9	89%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.04	4	62%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Hunter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	12	59%	0.02	4	-0.05	15	60%	-0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	7	14%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Kasun	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.00	-0.02	11	18%	-0.09	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	0.00	0.06	12	76%	0.08	1	-0.01	14	100%	0.03
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	18	61%	0.07	2	-0.01	10	80%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.07	10	48%	0.03	1	-0.00	7	71%	0.01
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	52%	0.01	2	-0.03	1	100%	-0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	23	48%	0.03	5	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.6	28.0	14.8	28.9	2.5	34.8	136.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +20.6%

DEN +6.9%

DEN +8.1%

DEN +8.9%

DEN +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	13.0	15.4	15.5	100.0	113.9	104.0
season	14.3	14.8		102.9	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.0	13.6	11.8	12.4	13.0
DEN	13.2	13.0	17.8	18.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Kasun	17	20	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-10	7	11.8	13.2	-1.40	15.1	15.5	-0.37
Jameer Nelson	12	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	-7	1	11.2	13.2	-1.97	17.2	15.2	2.00
Brandon Hunter	21	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	-4	-5	12.1	13.2	-1.13	17.0	15.0	1.95
Grant Hill	70	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-10	7	13.3	12.3	1.03	14.6	17.1	-2.49
DeShawn Stevenson	21	21	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	-2	-9	13.2	12.9	0.31	14.7	15.6	-0.92
Kelvin Cato	56	52	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-7	1	13.8	12.0	1.72	14.5	16.3	-1.77
Hedo Turkoglu	53	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.04	-9	-4	-5	11.7	14.4	-2.69	16.3	14.5	1.81
Dwight Howard	90	91	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-8	3	13.1	11.8	1.31	16.0	10.0	5.99
Cuttino Mobley	80	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-7	1	13.3	12.0	1.26	15.3	15.8	-0.55
Steve Francis	90	90	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-6	-1	13.2	11.2	1.97	15.2	17.2	-2.00

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	82	81	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.04	12	1	11	14.8	17.9	-3.14	13.2	12.3	0.89
Kenyon Martin	85	84	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.08	10	3	7	15.0	17.6	-2.65	13.6	10.1	3.50
Carmelo Anthony	85	81	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	6	1	15.1	17.0	-1.91	13.4	11.5	1.91
Nene	63	66	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	6	1	16.0	14.4	1.56	12.0	14.7	-2.68
Earl Boykins	56	56	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	7	-1	17.2	13.1	4.08	11.3	15.1	-3.78
Rodney White	33	36	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.05	11	2	9	15.1	15.5	-0.41	13.6	12.6	1.00
Marcus Camby	35	35	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.07	11	2	9	13.1	16.6	-3.49	14.0	12.4	1.58
Bryon Russell	17	21	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.02	6	7	-1	16.4	15.2	1.15	12.0	13.3	-1.31
Francisco Elson	19	19	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.10	-2	15	-17	19.5	14.4	5.09	11.6	13.3	-1.67
Greg Buckner	30	31	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	16	-19	14.2	15.9	-1.65	14.5	12.3	2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.84,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 105, CLE 117	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.97,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	96.9%
CHA 68, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
POR 74, SAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.79,0.83,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.85,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%