NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	86		Excitement	7.6 [345]		MVP	Grant Hill (ORL): +11.9%
Indiana Pacers	83		Comeback	1.6 [480]		LVP	Eddie Gill (IND): -20.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	16	67%	0.20	2	-0.08	10	80%	0.05
Mario Kasun	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	16	50%	0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Kelvin Cato	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	10	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	4	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	3	37%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18	-0.17	-0.01	-0.01	16	38%	-0.02	6	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.12	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.06
John Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07	-0.07	0.05	-0.09	0.04	25	57%	0.09	3	-0.16	4	100%	0.03
David Harrison	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16	-0.16	-0.06	-0.09	0.01	15	56%	0.03	5	-0.19	4	75%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	12	38%	-0.08	2	-0.09	5	100%	0.04
Eddie Gill	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.06	-0.14	0.01	10	36%	-0.16	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	30.0	15.6	25.3	1.7	36.2	135.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +16.7%

IND -3.5%

ORL +24.8%

ORL +9.0%

ORL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	15.1	17.8	15.5	97.7	95.4	104.0
season	14.3	16.8		102.9	101.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		101.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.7	15.0	15.0	15.8	15.1
IND	16.6	18.6	17.8	18.5	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	51	51	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.52	8	-5	13	15.7	14.3	1.42	17.8	17.9	-0.08
Steve Francis	75	74	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.42	9	-6	15	15.0	15.7	-0.71	18.3	15.4	2.89
Grant Hill	76	74	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.45	6	-3	9	15.0	15.4	-0.38	18.1	16.1	2.07
Dwight Howard	56	55	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	-4	11	14.5	16.1	-1.58	17.8	17.9	-0.11
Hedo Turkoglu	54	55	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.32	-1	4	-5	14.9	15.4	-0.47	17.6	18.2	-0.65
DeShawn Stevenson	46	45	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.05	1	2	-1	15.4	14.8	0.63	17.6	18.1	-0.45
Pat Garrity	32	32	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	7	-11	16.1	14.5	1.58	17.9	17.8	0.11
Mario Kasun	5	6	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	5	-7	18.6	14.9	3.72	19.0	17.8	1.25
Jameer Nelson	13	13	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.01	-6	9	-15	15.7	15.0	0.71	15.4	18.3	-2.89
Tony Battie	32	30	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.10	-3	6	-9	13.6	15.9	-2.35	17.7	17.9	-0.26

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Edwards	30	30	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.12	-1	-2	1	18.6	17.5	1.11	13.9	15.7	-1.76
James Jones	77	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.45	3	-6	9	18.0	16.9	1.06	15.2	14.4	0.72
Eddie Gill	87	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	17.8	0.0	17.84	15.1	0.0	15.09
Fred Jones	87	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	17.8	0.0	17.84	15.1	0.0	15.09
David Harrison	76	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.51	-2	-1	-1	18.1	15.9	2.21	15.7	10.9	4.78
Austin Croshere	78	78	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.40	-9	6	-15	17.2	23.7	-6.50	14.9	16.8	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.16,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 104, ORL 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.2%
MEM 103, DEN 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.42,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.02,0	92.3%
SAS 88, HOU 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.56,0.58,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.09,0.09,0	92.3%