NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	4.9 [868]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +21.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	106		Comeback	2.5 [263]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -15.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.03	0.00	14	69%	0.15	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.02	11	68%	0.13	2	-0.05	16	50%	-0.06
Michael Doleac	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	2	87%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Damon Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	0.04	0.01	0.05	8	71%	0.03	2	-0.02	8	100%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	10	56%	-0.08	6	-0.07	12	50%	-0.09

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.20	0.06	0.05	19	73%	0.21	0	0.00	7	100%	0.02
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.17	0.02	0.09	14	82%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.02	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	7	52%	-0.03	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	14	47%	-0.05	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	9	55%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	36%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	3.0	30.6	16.8	28.4	3.5	45.4	153.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.5%

MIA +3.0%

MIA +17.3%

MIL -5.1%

MIA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.1	15.5	118.9	111.6	104.0
season	15.7	16.0		107.9	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.5		107.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	16.8	15.4	13.0	15.2
MIL	16.6	15.3	16.6	12.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	71	72	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	0	7	15.2	15.0	0.23	15.6	13.7	1.86
Damon Jones	54	54	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.29	8	-1	9	13.4	17.6	-4.21	14.5	16.0	-1.41
Eddie Jones	76	76	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.25	7	0	7	15.4	14.2	1.20	15.3	14.4	0.91
Udonis Haslem	77	77	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	3	1	14.5	17.9	-3.42	14.6	17.4	-2.83
Shandon Anderson	56	57	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	6	-5	14.9	15.5	-0.63	15.2	15.1	0.03
Rasual Butler	35	34	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	0	7	15.9	14.8	1.09	15.9	14.7	1.24
Michael Doleac	19	19	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	7	-7	14.2	15.4	-1.20	14.4	15.3	-0.91
Malik Allen	23	22	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.07	3	4	-1	18.0	14.3	3.68	16.2	14.8	1.35
Dwyane Wade	64	64	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	9	-11	16.3	12.9	3.36	15.0	15.4	-0.40

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	49	48	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.11	5	-12	17	15.3	14.9	0.41	16.2	14.1	2.02
Daniel Santiago	28	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-10	13	16.8	14.5	2.32	17.9	14.2	3.68
Joe Smith	58	58	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-7	7	14.0	17.0	-2.99	13.4	17.9	-4.51
Erick Strickland	27	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-4	1	14.6	15.4	-0.72	14.9	15.3	-0.39
Michael Redd	68	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-3	-1	15.4	14.6	0.72	15.3	14.9	0.39
Desmond Mason	64	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.32	-1	-6	5	14.8	15.9	-1.12	15.0	15.6	-0.66
Keith Van Horn	94	93	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	0	-7	15.2	11.0	4.19	15.2	13.0	2.22
Dan Gadzuric	41	45	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.02	-16	9	-25	16.1	14.4	1.76	16.1	14.3	1.83
Mike James	46	47	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.18	-12	5	-17	14.9	15.3	-0.41	14.1	16.2	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.54,0.65,0.72,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 108, CLE 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.55,0.42,0.35,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
PHI 87, MIL 76	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.26,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.14,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	94.0%
UTA 113, ORL 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%