NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	6.0 [656]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +19.4%
San Antonio Spurs	93		Comeback	1.2 [1108]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -16.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.01	6	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	100%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	11	45%	0.06	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	55%	0.06	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	0.00	21	47%	0.01	3	-0.09	7	71%	-0.01
Keyon Dooling	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.05	0.06	7	59%	-0.07	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	10	44%	-0.05	4	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Eddie Jones	-0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	5	33%	-0.10	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.07	-0.00	12	85%	0.29	4	-0.10	10	80%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	56%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	16	53%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.04	-0.04	14	40%	-0.10	1	-0.04	14	36%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	36.0	16.8	25.3	2.6	40.2	147.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +31.7%

MIA -7.4%

MIA -14.9%

SAS +37.7%

SAS +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	17.4	15.5	15.5	96.6	105.7	104.0
season	15.7	16.3		107.9	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		98.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.6	16.2	19.0	17.9	17.4
SAS	16.1	13.8	15.3	17.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wang Zhi-zhi	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-8	7	5.0	17.5	-12.52	1.0	15.7	-14.71
Keyon Dooling	46	46	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.22	0	-9	9	17.1	17.7	-0.53	16.2	14.8	1.41
Udonis Haslem	43	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	-1	-7	17.9	16.9	0.95	14.8	16.2	-1.36
Shaquille O'Neal	72	73	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-9	9	17.6	16.3	1.26	15.7	15.0	0.66
Michael Doleac	15	15	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	0	-9	16.3	17.6	-1.26	15.0	15.7	-0.66
Malik Allen	43	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-9	9	17.2	17.6	-0.38	16.5	14.5	2.02
Eddie Jones	30	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-2	-5	18.7	16.7	2.02	16.1	15.2	0.92
Rasual Butler	78	78	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-5	1	17.3	17.7	-0.32	15.3	17.4	-2.09
Wesley Person	37	37	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	4	-17	16.8	17.8	-1.08	16.0	15.2	0.74
Damon Jones	70	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-6	3	17.3	17.5	-0.19	14.9	18.2	-3.30

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	73	72	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.10	22	-13	35	15.4	16.2	-0.79	17.7	15.7	2.07
Manu Ginobili	65	64	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.19	13	-4	17	15.1	16.8	-1.73	16.9	18.7	-1.79
Bruce Bowen	61	60	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.14	13	-4	17	15.4	15.9	-0.50	18.8	14.2	4.58
Tony Parker	72	71	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	14.8	18.9	-4.07	17.0	18.9	-1.83
Rasho Nesterovic	38	40	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.09	8	1	7	16.0	15.2	0.85	17.2	17.5	-0.29
Robert Horry	20	19	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.04	9	0	9	14.0	16.0	-2.00	15.4	17.9	-2.51
Devin Brown	13	12	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	8	-7	11.2	16.3	-5.06	14.6	17.8	-3.24
Beno Udrih	16	16	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	9	-9	18.9	14.8	4.07	18.9	17.0	1.83
Tony Massenburg	30	27	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.22	-10	19	-29	16.0	15.3	0.64	18.7	16.8	1.87
Brent Barry	37	38	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.14	-9	18	-27	18.1	13.7	4.42	16.8	17.8	-1.00
Malik Rose	15	16	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.10	-11	20	-31	16.2	15.4	0.79	16.3	17.6	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.66,0.78,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.76,0.66,0.75,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 108, PHX 115	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.73,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.93,0.9,0.92,1	93.5%
NYK 95, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.61,0.85,0.97,0.98,1	93.2%
CHH 91, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.7,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.88,0.94,0.99,1	93.2%