NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	94		Excitement	3.4 [1132]		MVP	Baron Davis (NOH): +10.5%
Washington Wizards	78		Comeback	1.5 [399]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -14.9%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.15	0.01	0.06	18	67%	0.11	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.03
Jamaal Magloire	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	12	66%	0.08	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.00
Maurice Carter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	3	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	7	43%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	57%	0.02	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
George Lynch	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	11	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	7	69%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.19	-0.00	-0.09	7	0%	-0.06	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.08	0.01	-0.09	11	33%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	10	58%	0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	59%	0.02	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Mitchell Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.03	9	67%	0.01	2	-0.03	6	67%	0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	10	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.01	9	17%	-0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.18	-0.01	-0.04	5	14%	-0.07	4	-0.08	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.4	25.5	16.3	25.5	2.4	27.4	122.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +26.2%

NOH +0.8%

NOH +15.8%

NOH +6.0%

NOH +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	WAS	NBA	NOH	WAS	NBA
this game	17.0	15.0	15.7	105.6	85.7	100.5
season	16.0	15.2		99.3	96.4
opponent	15.3	15.7		102.4	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	19.3	14.4	18.0	16.9	17.0
WAS	16.7	15.0	14.0	14.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	54	56	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	6	4	16.6	17.7	-1.17	14.9	15.1	-0.20
Stacey Augmon	45	48	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.18	20	-4	24	15.7	18.4	-2.72	14.6	15.4	-0.73
Shammond Williams	56	60	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	6	4	17.1	16.9	0.15	14.9	15.1	-0.11
Robert Traylor	48	49	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.08	15	1	14	16.0	18.3	-2.33	14.2	16.0	-1.79
Baron Davis	51	50	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.32	22	-6	28	16.7	17.4	-0.68	15.6	14.2	1.44
David Wesley	59	60	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.10	7	9	-2	17.1	16.9	0.25	15.0	14.9	0.08
Jamaal Magloire	53	52	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.16	0	16	-16	18.7	14.6	4.02	15.4	14.4	1.01
George Lynch	50	51	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	12	-8	17.2	16.8	0.38	15.4	14.4	1.01
Maurice Carter	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	23	-30	17.6	16.9	0.64	12.3	15.4	-3.06
P.J. Brown	17	17	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	17	-18	19.5	16.4	3.08	15.9	14.8	1.17

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	32	31	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-18	20	16.2	14.4	1.80	18.9	16.0	2.87
Larry Hughes	48	46	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.21	7	-23	30	14.8	15.2	-0.42	18.1	15.9	2.22
Steve Blake	54	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.27	4	-20	24	15.4	14.5	0.89	17.9	15.8	2.19
Lonny Baxter	27	25	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	-9	2	13.5	15.6	-2.14	16.0	17.4	-1.44
Jarvis Hayes	59	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.29	2	-18	20	15.5	14.1	1.33	17.6	16.0	1.59
Jared Jeffries	63	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.01	-9	-7	-2	15.7	13.5	2.20	17.4	16.0	1.44
Mitchell Butler	32	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.25	-18	2	-20	14.1	15.5	-1.33	16.0	17.6	-1.59
Juan Dixon	41	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.15	-18	2	-20	14.7	15.2	-0.47	15.7	18.1	-2.38
Gilbert Arenas	40	40	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.25	-25	9	-34	14.9	15.0	-0.07	15.9	17.9	-2.01
Etan Thomas	59	58	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.02	-18	2	-20	14.4	16.2	-1.80	16.0	18.9	-2.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 129, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
MIA 107, GSW 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
LAL 102, GSW 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%