NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	95		Excitement	5.6 [676]		MVP	Kevin Willis (SAS): +6.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	89		Comeback	1.2 [483]		LVP	Rick Fox (LAL): -15.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	22	54%	0.11	2	-0.06	10	70%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	14	51%	0.04	3	-0.07	7	57%	-0.05
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	57%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Horry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	9	48%	-0.03	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.00	11	70%	0.09	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Luke Walton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	55%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	43%	-0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.07	0.01	15	55%	-0.00	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	0.00	26	45%	-0.09	3	-0.07	10	80%	-0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.02	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	5	-0.12	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	3.7	35.3	17.6	26.2	3.5	37.3	150.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +41.9%

LAL -14.8%

SAS +3.8%

SAS +14.9%

SAS +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	14.6	15.7	15.7	100.0	93.7	100.5
season	15.9	15.4		100.1	102.8
opponent	15.6	15.8		99.0	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.1	13.8	14.6	15.9	14.6
LAL	16.6	16.1	15.4	14.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	59	60	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.22	10	-4	14	14.2	15.3	-1.13	16.0	15.1	0.90
Tim Duncan	82	84	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.19	10	-4	14	14.0	18.4	-4.35	15.6	16.3	-0.67
Robert Horry	33	33	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	-8	22	14.3	14.8	-0.55	17.5	14.7	2.71
Tony Parker	85	84	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.38	1	5	-4	14.7	13.9	0.82	15.2	19.5	-4.37
Devin Brown	18	19	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	-5	16	15.6	14.4	1.14	17.4	15.3	2.11
Bruce Bowen	81	79	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.38	-5	11	-16	14.3	16.6	-2.36	15.4	17.2	-1.88
Kevin Willis	24	23	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	6	-6	15.6	14.3	1.27	13.7	16.3	-2.62
Hedo Turkoglu	42	43	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	5	-4	15.3	14.1	1.26	16.0	15.4	0.66
Rasho Nesterovic	51	50	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.30	-12	18	-30	15.4	13.8	1.60	15.6	15.8	-0.26

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Fox	42	41	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-7	8	15.8	15.6	0.14	13.8	15.2	-1.41
Karl Malone	83	84	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.38	5	-11	16	15.1	19.4	-4.27	14.3	17.3	-2.99
Shaquille O'Neal	72	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-6	6	15.1	17.5	-2.42	14.9	13.8	1.12
Devean George	24	24	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	3	-12	16.7	15.3	1.43	15.6	14.3	1.27
Slava Medvedenko	28	26	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	3	-12	19.0	14.3	4.70	16.5	13.9	2.63
Kobe Bryant	87	87	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.30	0	-6	6	15.8	14.4	1.43	14.4	17.6	-3.27
Derek Fisher	39	39	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-3	0	15.4	15.9	-0.42	15.0	14.4	0.58
Luke Walton	12	12	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	8	-22	15.8	15.7	0.17	13.4	14.8	-1.39
Gary Payton	88	89	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.37	-1	-5	4	15.3	21.0	-5.74	14.6	15.3	-0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.2,0.19,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.08,0.15,0.01,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 101, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.07,0.03,0.01,0	93.6%
PHX 110, SEA 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.22,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.15,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	93.5%
IND 87, BOS 74	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.44,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.4%