NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	90		Excitement	4.8 [841]		MVP	Michael Curry (TOR): +6.6%
Toronto Raptors	83		Comeback	1.6 [386]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): -16.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	8	61%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	13	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Keith Van Horn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.01	0.03	5	71%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Michael Redd	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	14	55%	0.02	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	9	22%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	14	59%	0.05	5	-0.13	4	25%	-0.06

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	7	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.03	21	49%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	12	54%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	21	39%	-0.09	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.01	11	38%	-0.09	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.0	23.5	16.6	21.2	2.6	32.5	121.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +24.6%

MIL +1.2%

MIL +16.0%

MIL +6.7%

MIL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.7	16.8	15.7	101.1	94.3	100.5
season	15.3	16.8		103.6	94.8
opponent	15.7	15.5		98.4	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.1	16.1	15.7	16.0	15.7
TOR	17.6	13.9	19.5	16.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	66	65	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.24	7	0	7	14.9	18.2	-3.30	17.3	15.5	1.76
Desmond Mason	78	77	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	-1	9	15.1	19.9	-4.77	16.6	18.5	-1.87
Michael Redd	64	63	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	6	-5	15.5	16.3	-0.82	17.0	16.4	0.58
Brevin Knight	36	35	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.17	5	2	3	17.4	14.6	2.83	16.9	16.8	0.06
Keith Van Horn	42	41	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	3	1	16.2	15.3	0.83	16.1	17.5	-1.39
Brian Skinner	63	63	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.28	-2	9	-11	16.5	13.9	2.61	17.3	15.5	1.81
Toni Kukoc	31	31	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.07	5	2	3	17.3	14.9	2.44	16.3	17.1	-0.81
Damon Jones	53	53	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.13	2	5	-3	14.6	17.4	-2.83	16.8	16.9	-0.06
Dan Gadzuric	12	12	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	2	3	15.8	15.7	0.12	16.2	16.9	-0.75

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Glover	6	6	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-9	11	15.7	16.9	-1.24	15.7	15.7	-0.07
Michael Curry	42	42	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.20	6	-13	19	15.8	17.7	-1.88	16.9	14.7	2.22
Corie Blount	34	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.22	5	-12	17	16.6	17.0	-0.42	17.2	14.7	2.46
Rod Strickland	6	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-4	1	15.3	16.9	-1.59	16.4	15.7	0.76
Jalen Rose	78	79	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-9	11	16.4	20.2	-3.82	15.3	19.2	-3.91
Milt Palacio	11	10	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-4	1	21.1	16.2	4.88	20.4	15.1	5.26
Chris Bosh	70	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-4	1	16.9	16.6	0.26	14.8	18.9	-4.15
Morris Peterson	52	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.09	-12	5	-17	17.3	16.1	1.24	15.0	16.9	-1.86
Vince Carter	69	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.19	-13	6	-19	17.1	15.9	1.18	15.3	17.0	-1.70
Donyell Marshall	72	73	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.15	-16	9	-25	16.9	16.5	0.39	15.9	15.0	0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.46,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.09,0.1,0.18,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 122, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.5,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%
PHX 94, LAC 80	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.3,0.16,0.19,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.4%
NYK 102, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0	93.3%