NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	105		Excitement	3.6 [1092]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +11.0%
Orlando Magic	90		Comeback	1.3 [435]		LVP	Juwan Howard (ORL): -13.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.03	22	60%	0.14	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	10	86%	0.11	5	-0.07	8	100%	0.04
Lamar Odom	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.01	0.06	11	83%	0.11	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	10	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	-0.05	9	30%	-0.04	2	-0.01	2	50%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	64%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Britton Johnsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.02	2	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	18	55%	0.01	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Tyronn Lue	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reece Gaines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	17	51%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	7	67%	0.06	5	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	3	44%	-0.02	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.02	13	38%	-0.08	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.4	30.5	16.7	25.1	2.3	29.6	129.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.7%

MIA +5.0%

MIA +14.7%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.7	112.9	97.8	100.5
season	16.2	15.7		99.3	100.9
opponent	15.4	15.9		108.2	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	11.9	17.0	14.8	14.9
ORL	17.5	15.3	18.1	14.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	71	71	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.07	16	-1	17	14.3	17.0	-2.72	16.1	16.6	-0.46
Brian Grant	71	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	4	7	14.9	15.0	-0.16	16.4	15.7	0.75
Lamar Odom	76	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	2	11	15.1	14.2	0.84	16.5	15.1	1.40
Eddie Jones	72	71	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.09	18	-3	21	15.1	14.4	0.64	15.8	17.5	-1.63
Rafer Alston	60	58	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.11	5	10	-5	14.8	15.1	-0.26	16.0	16.6	-0.59
Caron Butler	53	52	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	7	1	15.9	13.6	2.24	17.0	15.1	1.89
Udonis Haslem	39	39	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.07	6	9	-3	14.7	15.1	-0.40	15.4	16.8	-1.40
Rasual Butler	23	24	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	17	-19	14.5	15.1	-0.59	16.4	16.2	0.21

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reece Gaines	30	30	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-15	15	15.4	16.6	-1.21	15.2	14.8	0.36
Zaza Pachulia	32	31	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.07	3	-18	21	15.9	16.4	-0.43	14.4	15.2	-0.85
Britton Johnsen	21	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.12	2	-17	19	17.4	15.9	1.57	16.8	14.4	2.37
Keith Bogans	36	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-12	9	15.6	16.6	-1.09	14.4	15.2	-0.78
Andrew DeClercq	31	30	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	-7	-1	16.7	16.0	0.74	16.0	14.4	1.59
Drew Gooden	60	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-14	13	16.1	16.3	-0.19	14.6	15.5	-0.83
DeShawn Stevenson	56	57	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.03	-12	-3	-9	16.6	15.6	1.09	15.2	14.4	0.78
Tracy McGrady	77	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.12	-12	-3	-9	16.5	14.5	2.01	14.8	15.3	-0.49
Tyronn Lue	56	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.10	-20	5	-25	15.7	16.9	-1.19	14.2	16.0	-1.80
Juwan Howard	61	64	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	0.09	-24	9	-33	16.2	16.3	-0.11	15.0	14.8	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.31,0.33,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 121, LAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
SEA 103, MIN 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.16,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
SAS 116, MIN 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.18,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%