NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	111		Excitement	9.0 [105]		MVP	Etan Thomas (WAS): +17.1%
Washington Wizards	102		Comeback	8.4 [87]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (WAS): -44.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.11	-0.00	0.10	-0.01	11	58%	0.15	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Walter McCarty	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	11	55%	0.13	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	13	61%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.03,0.03,0.15,0,0	0.09	-0.07	0.02	28	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Brandon Hunter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	7	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Blount	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	65%	0.03	6	-0.15	7	71%	-0.00
Chris Mihm	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	6	31%	-0.10	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.06

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.07	-0.01	7	87%	0.20	2	-0.03	10	90%	0.05
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	54%	-0.03	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.08
Mitchell Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.08	-0.02	15	40%	-0.02	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.19,-0.23	-0.23	-0.03	-0.19	0.01	20	62%	0.15	7	-0.39	5	60%	-0.03
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.25,-0.44,-0.44	-0.44	-0.17	-0.26	0.01	22	40%	-0.25	6	-0.19	3	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	28.5	15.5	28.5	2.4	35.4	135.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +21.7%

BOS +1.9%

BOS +14.8%

BOS +15.0%

WAS -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	WAS	NBA	BOS	WAS	NBA
this game	13.5	13.5	15.7	103.7	96.2	100.5
season	14.4	15.2		99.5	96.4
opponent	15.3	15.9		102.4	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.1	14.0	12.4	13.7	13.5
WAS	13.6	13.2	13.9	13.5	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	99	98	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.17	18	-9	27	13.6	12.9	0.69	13.8	10.2	3.55
Walter McCarty	69	67	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.27	13	-4	17	12.8	14.9	-2.14	13.3	13.8	-0.50
Chucky Atkins	64	65	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.25	12	-3	15	13.4	13.7	-0.27	12.9	14.5	-1.56
Mark Blount	83	84	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.24	10	-1	11	13.5	13.6	-0.14	13.1	15.1	-1.97
Ricky Davis	70	70	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	7	-5	12.8	14.9	-2.15	13.4	13.9	-0.50
Brandon Hunter	34	35	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	12	-15	14.9	12.8	2.09	13.3	13.6	-0.32
Chris Mihm	28	26	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	11	-13	13.7	13.4	0.32	15.6	12.8	2.77
Marcus Banks	44	42	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.01	-3	12	-15	13.4	13.6	-0.26	14.3	13.0	1.25
Jiri Welsch	44	43	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.05	-2	11	-13	14.9	12.6	2.33	13.4	13.6	-0.26

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	25	26	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.06	11	-20	31	12.2	13.9	-1.69	15.5	12.9	2.57
Steve Blake	16	18	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-9	9	12.6	13.7	-1.14	12.4	13.7	-1.35
Mitchell Butler	19	18	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-7	5	15.3	13.1	2.18	12.3	13.8	-1.49
Jared Jeffries	26	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-5	1	14.8	13.1	1.70	14.0	13.4	0.60
Brendan Haywood	27	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.09	-6	-3	-3	14.1	13.3	0.73	13.5	13.5	0.01
Gilbert Arenas	103	104	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.30	-4	-5	1	13.4	19.0	-5.63	13.5	13.3	0.19
Etan Thomas	72	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-9	9	13.5	13.6	-0.04	13.9	12.8	1.10
Juan Dixon	69	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.29	-7	-2	-5	13.4	13.7	-0.31	13.5	13.5	0.00
Kwame Brown	79	79	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.15	-15	6	-21	13.5	13.6	-0.14	13.3	14.0	-0.71
Jerry Stackhouse	94	94	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.20	-18	9	-27	13.5	14.1	-0.63	13.2	16.0	-2.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.62,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.74,0.89,0.55,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 106, SAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.43,0.38,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.69,0.84,0.69,0.09,0	91.4%
IND 104, CHA 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.55,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.58,0.74,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.57,0.16,0	91.2%
WAS 95, MIL 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.74,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.77,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.27,0	90.1%