NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	88		Excitement	8.0 [228]		MVP	Shane Battier (MEM): +22.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	94		Comeback	3.3 [633]		LVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): -24.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	6	50%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	12	61%	0.17	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	16	65%	0.12	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.04
Devin Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	13	46%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Rose	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	14	56%	0.11	4	-0.22	6	83%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.07	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	6	-0.21	4	100%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.18	-0.07	-0.00	4	10%	-0.08	5	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.11	0.00	6	89%	0.22	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.09	-0.00	6	47%	0.07	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.04
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	7	50%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.01	21	56%	0.11	2	-0.05	6	83%	-0.01
Theron Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	10	50%	-0.03	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	13	26%	-0.13	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.03
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.15	-0.06	0.00	15	20%	-0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.8	2.5	28.5	16.4	28.1	1.8	36.2	143.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -0.2%

SAS -13.3%

SAS -2.6%

MEM +65.2%

MEM +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	15.6	14.8	15.7	93.6	97.9	100.5
season	15.9	15.3		100.1	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.8		100.5	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	15.8	15.1	16.0	15.6
MEM	15.3	13.0	16.2	14.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	29	29	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.12	-7	1	-8	15.8	15.5	0.30	11.1	16.4	-5.30
Devin Brown	16	15	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-2	-2	15.7	15.5	0.24	11.6	15.4	-3.76
Hedo Turkoglu	75	77	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.33	6	-12	18	15.0	17.7	-2.74	15.7	11.2	4.50
Tony Parker	86	87	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.20	1	-7	8	15.4	17.0	-1.58	15.1	11.9	3.18
Bruce Bowen	47	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	0	-6	16.9	14.3	2.60	15.0	14.5	0.49
Rasho Nesterovic	79	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	-3	0	15.6	15.2	0.42	15.0	13.1	1.91
Malik Rose	80	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-4	2	15.4	16.4	-0.94	15.8	9.1	6.68
Manu Ginobili	58	62	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.32	-15	9	-24	15.4	15.9	-0.50	13.8	16.5	-2.68

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	44	43	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.30	17	-11	28	13.6	15.7	-2.14	16.3	15.0	1.30
Shane Battier	61	62	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.14	20	-14	34	13.2	17.5	-4.27	16.0	14.8	1.17
Bo Outlaw	43	42	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.32	13	-7	20	13.7	15.6	-1.90	16.6	14.7	1.88
Theron Smith	25	24	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-9	24	12.8	15.5	-2.61	17.9	14.8	3.12
Pau Gasol	78	76	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	5	-4	15.3	12.7	2.59	15.5	15.7	-0.14
James Posey	57	55	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.45	-11	17	-28	15.8	13.2	2.64	14.6	16.9	-2.25
Stromile Swift	52	51	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.18	8	-2	10	13.0	16.9	-3.86	15.0	16.2	-1.21
Jake Tsakalidis	19	19	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.13	-10	16	-26	20.0	13.5	6.52	14.8	15.7	-0.89
Jason Williams	52	51	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	0.03	-11	17	-28	15.7	13.6	2.14	15.0	16.3	-1.30
Bonzi Wells	49	47	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.05	-12	18	-30	16.4	13.0	3.43	14.9	16.2	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.26,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 88, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.52,0.67,0.68,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.9,0.72,0.94,0.96,1	92.3%
UTA 102, HOU 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.73,0.65,0.67,0.78,0.83,0.79,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.88,0.98,1,1	91.5%
CHH 90, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.61,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.91,0.96,1	91.2%