NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	92		Excitement	5.6 [677]		MVP	P.J. Brown (NOH): +7.0%
Memphis Grizzlies	97		Comeback	1.9 [836]		LVP	Baron Davis (NOH): -20.7%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.04	0.03	8	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06	0.10	0.00	0.04	3	133%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	13	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
George Lynch	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Stacey Augmon	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	0.03	8	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	7	24%	-0.06	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	24	42%	-0.06	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.16,-0.13,-0.04,-0.09,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21	-0.12	-0.08	0.01	26	45%	-0.03	6	-0.17	1	0%	-0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	11	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	15	63%	0.07	3	-0.08	8	62%	-0.02
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	15	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	67%	0.02
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Bonzi Wells	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	10	54%	0.03	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.0	28.0	16.4	23.5	2.5	37.3	133.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +35.2%

MEM +16.6%

NOH -6.3%

MEM +3.2%

MEM +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MEM	NBA	NOH	MEM	NBA
this game	16.1	14.5	15.7	97.9	103.2	100.5
season	16.0	15.3		99.3	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.7		100.5	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	13.5	18.3	19.4	13.9	16.1
MEM	15.3	13.0	14.0	15.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	39	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.15	3	-8	11	17.3	15.3	2.02	14.2	14.7	-0.47
Steven Smith	27	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.33	9	-14	23	14.3	16.9	-2.60	14.7	14.4	0.25
George Lynch	14	14	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	4	-13	19.1	15.6	3.43	12.8	14.8	-2.00
Jamaal Magloire	60	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	3	-11	16.7	15.1	1.57	14.5	14.5	0.03
Stacey Augmon	53	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	3	-11	16.7	15.4	1.30	14.7	14.2	0.47
Jamal Mashburn	75	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-3	1	15.5	18.9	-3.44	14.7	13.6	1.07
Darrell Armstrong	54	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-1	-3	15.6	16.9	-1.35	13.4	16.0	-2.54
Baron Davis	85	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-2	-1	16.0	17.7	-1.68	14.8	10.9	3.95
P.J. Brown	63	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	-2	-1	16.1	16.3	-0.21	15.0	13.4	1.51

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	60	60	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.43	1	4	-3	14.8	13.9	0.90	16.4	15.7	0.69
Lorenzen Wright	53	52	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	-1	7	14.5	14.5	0.05	18.1	13.7	4.44
Bonzi Wells	73	73	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.21	5	0	5	14.6	14.0	0.57	15.5	18.5	-3.00
Shane Battier	67	67	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.23	1	4	-3	14.3	14.9	-0.51	15.7	17.4	-1.71
Bo Outlaw	31	32	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.01	9	-4	13	12.6	15.4	-2.80	18.5	14.9	3.56
Earl Watson	31	32	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.01	9	-4	13	12.6	15.4	-2.80	18.5	14.9	3.56
Pau Gasol	63	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.36	-4	9	-13	15.4	12.6	2.80	14.9	18.5	-3.56
Jason Williams	63	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.36	-4	9	-13	15.4	12.6	2.80	14.9	18.5	-3.56
Stromile Swift	29	30	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	3	-1	13.8	14.8	-1.01	14.9	16.7	-1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,0.97,0.96,0.87,0.75,0.78,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 82, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.83,0.64,0.89,0.9,0.99,1	93.9%
BOS 86, ORL 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.83,1	93.6%
PHI 107, NJN 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.86,0.89,0.97,1,1	93.4%