NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	100		Excitement	9.3 [95]		MVP	Luke Walton (LAL): +4.6%
Golden State Warriors	99		Comeback	1.6 [340]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): -22.8%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Walton	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	6	42%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Payton	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rick Fox	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	5	42%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Slava Medvedenko	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	32%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.2,-0.11	0.07	-0.17	0.01	16	74%	0.32	5	-0.43	15	87%	0.06
Kareem Rush	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.13	-0.01	-0.12	0.00	1	50%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.15
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.06,-0.13,-0.23	-0.09	-0.14	0.00	23	56%	-0.03	7	-0.20	9	11%	-0.31

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	5	57%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	15	53%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.12	-0.02	20	57%	0.04	3	-0.12	4	75%	0.03
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.13,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	10	54%	0.00	2	-0.10	4	75%	0.02
Brian Cardinal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	9	33%	-0.13	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,-0.16	-0.16	0.04	-0.19	0.01	14	67%	-0.05	3	-0.10	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.0	30.4	16.7	31.4	2.6	35.8	141.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +56.8%

GSW -26.9%

LAL +47.3%

GSW -29.6%

LAL +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	GSW	NBA	LAL	GSW	NBA
this game	16.3	16.9	15.7	116.3	113.8	100.5
season	15.4	16.1		102.8	100.8
opponent	15.3	15.6		101.6	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.5	17.2	16.1	15.7	16.3
GSW	13.5	20.7	17.4	17.0	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	75	74	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.50	5	-4	9	15.9	19.5	-3.67	17.6	13.3	4.27
Kareem Rush	17	16	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.66	-1	2	-3	15.1	16.7	-1.53	17.7	16.8	0.99
Kobe Bryant	78	78	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.47	-1	2	-3	16.6	14.2	2.31	17.1	16.0	1.05
Rick Fox	45	46	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	2	-3	15.0	17.9	-2.88	17.1	16.7	0.40
Horace Grant	27	28	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.01	10	-9	19	17.3	15.9	1.38	17.0	16.9	0.14
Devean George	42	41	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	-1	3	17.4	15.3	2.11	16.7	17.1	-0.40
Luke Walton	35	37	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	4	-7	16.6	16.2	0.38	16.8	17.0	-0.18
Gary Payton	44	44	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	1	-1	15.3	17.4	-2.06	16.3	17.6	-1.22
Derek Fisher	33	36	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.24	4	-3	7	17.8	15.4	2.38	17.1	16.8	0.24
Slava Medvedenko	34	35	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	11	-21	16.9	16.0	0.88	15.6	17.8	-2.20

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Speedy Claxton	46	47	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-1	1	17.4	16.4	0.95	16.0	16.7	-0.68
Adonal Foyle	18	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	2	-5	15.5	17.3	-1.82	17.0	16.2	0.80
Erick Dampier	63	61	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.19	-2	1	-3	17.3	16.1	1.13	16.6	15.8	0.83
Jason Richardson	78	76	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.43	6	-7	13	16.7	19.4	-2.79	15.8	20.6	-4.81
Brian Cardinal	57	61	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.39	0	-1	1	17.2	16.4	0.88	15.9	17.4	-1.43
Calbert Cheaney	54	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	0	-1	18.4	14.6	3.72	16.6	16.0	0.62
Clifford Robinson	72	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	1	-3	15.9	22.1	-6.27	16.4	16.1	0.26
Nick Van Exel	47	45	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	2	-5	16.8	17.1	-0.34	17.3	15.3	1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.22,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 110, IND 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.42,0	93.1%
CHH 108, BOS 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.17,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.16,0.06,0.16,0	92.4%
DEN 83, VAN 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.47,0.49,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.47,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.42,0	92.1%