NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	113		Excitement	6.4 [526]		MVP	Antawn Jamison (DAL): +26.7%
New Orleans Hornets	104		Comeback	2.3 [249]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (NOH): -8.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.11	0.16	-0.00	11	77%	0.29	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.05	0.01	19	62%	0.17	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	100%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Steve Nash	0.00	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.01	0.01	15	53%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.05	0.03	16	58%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Travis Best	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Antoine Walker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.03	-0.01	5	33%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Scott Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.02	-0.04	4	0%	-0.09	1	0.01	2	0%	-0.03

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.02	-0.01	6	85%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.10	-0.08	0.03	15	73%	0.12	3	-0.12	7	86%	0.03
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tierre Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	12	66%	0.07	4	-0.10	11	64%	-0.04
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.03	13	43%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	22	39%	-0.06	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	26.8	15.7	28.3	1.7	37.6	136.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +44.2%

NOH -14.4%

DAL +3.4%

DAL +20.6%

NOH -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	NOH	NBA	DAL	NOH	NBA
this game	13.9	16.9	15.7	120.2	111.8	100.5
season	14.6	16.0		109.2	99.3
opponent	15.7	15.6		99.4	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.0	14.7	13.7	13.4	13.9
NOH	17.3	18.9	15.1	16.6	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	59	61	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.11	16	-7	23	15.6	11.1	4.45	18.4	14.1	4.35
Dirk Nowitzki	78	75	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.23	9	0	9	13.9	14.0	-0.12	16.1	20.4	-4.38
Travis Best	24	25	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.02	14	-5	19	15.4	13.4	2.03	17.6	16.6	0.99
Antoine Walker	61	63	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.23	6	3	3	12.2	17.1	-4.96	16.7	17.3	-0.62
Michael Finley	82	81	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	6	-3	13.4	17.1	-3.64	16.5	19.4	-2.87
Shawn Bradley	28	25	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.05	7	2	5	12.0	14.7	-2.76	20.1	15.7	4.33
Scott Williams	23	23	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.05	8	1	7	16.5	13.1	3.41	15.2	17.5	-2.25
Steve Nash	70	68	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.22	-5	14	-19	13.4	15.4	-2.03	16.6	17.6	-0.99
Josh Howard	24	22	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.01	-3	12	-15	15.5	13.4	2.09	17.2	16.8	0.41
Danny Fortson	21	22	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.08	-10	19	-29	14.2	13.8	0.37	15.5	17.4	-1.91

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	81	83	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.24	5	-14	19	17.0	16.3	0.67	13.8	14.7	-0.93
Jamal Mashburn	84	85	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.29	5	-14	19	17.2	14.7	2.49	13.5	17.8	-4.28
P.J. Brown	78	79	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-12	15	17.3	14.7	2.68	13.4	16.7	-3.29
Tierre Brown	5	6	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.09	-9	0	-9	15.2	17.0	-1.81	17.8	13.6	4.20
David West	9	9	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-4	-1	11.9	17.5	-5.56	16.0	13.7	2.32
Darrell Armstrong	83	83	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-12	15	16.5	20.2	-3.68	13.8	14.5	-0.73
Stacey Augmon	53	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	0	-9	17.8	15.8	1.95	13.6	14.3	-0.65
George Lynch	11	11	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.05	-14	5	-19	16.3	17.0	-0.73	18.7	13.3	5.46
Robert Traylor	12	11	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.01	-14	5	-19	16.3	17.0	-0.67	14.7	13.8	0.93
Steven Smith	49	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	1	-11	16.8	17.0	-0.21	14.0	13.8	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.26,0.09,0.22,0.14,0.07,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 100, WAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.44,0.37,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.04,0	93.7%
ATL 120, MIL 114	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.11,0.05,0.04,0	92.8%
BOS 105, MIL 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.56,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.23,0.1,0.04,0.13,0.08,0.07,0,0,0	92.7%