NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	81		Excitement	4.1 [987]		MVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): +18.1%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.5 [876]		LVP	Jim Jackson (HOU): -11.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Jackson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Scott Padgett	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	9	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	15	47%	-0.02	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	9	39%	-0.05	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.03
Cuttino Mobley	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	13	42%	-0.03	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.01
Jim Jackson	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	-0.02	-0.05	12	19%	-0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.04	-0.08	14	62%	0.18	1	-0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	0.01	0.05	14	69%	0.09	1	-0.03	11	64%	-0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.01	12	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	47%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	13	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	2.5	25.1	16.5	28.8	1.0	32.5	135.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +53.7%

HOU -14.0%

MIA +2.5%

MIA +3.3%

MIA +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	17.3	17.4	15.7	97.6	114.5	100.5
season	16.5	16.2		98.8	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.8	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.3	19.7	17.8	14.7	17.3
MIA	17.0	20.3	14.9	18.0	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Padgett	13	11	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-12	10	14.5	17.8	-3.22	17.1	17.5	-0.41
Mike Wilks	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	13.0	17.4	-4.36	13.0	17.6	-4.56
Bostjan Nachbar	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	13.0	17.4	-4.36	13.0	17.6	-4.56
Eric Piatkowski	10	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	13.3	17.8	-4.49	17.1	17.5	-0.39
Clar. Weatherspoon	9	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	-12	10	18.7	17.1	1.59	18.9	17.2	1.65
Kelvin Cato	45	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-8	2	18.0	16.4	1.63	18.6	16.1	2.52
Cuttino Mobley	65	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	-6	-2	17.1	17.8	-0.74	17.8	16.2	1.67
Mark Jackson	37	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.05	-12	-2	-10	17.8	16.8	0.96	18.3	16.7	1.56
Maurice Taylor	44	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.19	-6	-8	2	16.7	17.8	-1.07	15.7	19.3	-3.53
Jim Jackson	72	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.17	-7	-7	0	17.4	16.3	1.13	17.5	16.8	0.72
Yao Ming	47	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.08	-16	2	-18	18.1	16.1	2.07	17.6	17.2	0.47
Steve Francis	69	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.12	-15	1	-16	17.3	16.9	0.48	16.9	20.6	-3.76

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	78	78	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.05	18	-4	22	17.3	20.2	-2.93	17.6	11.8	5.80
Caron Butler	78	78	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.07	17	-3	20	17.2	21.6	-4.42	17.3	16.2	1.12
Lamar Odom	76	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	3	8	17.4	17.7	-0.29	17.2	17.3	-0.05
Brian Grant	61	62	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.00	11	3	8	17.8	16.5	1.35	17.4	16.8	0.66
Rafer Alston	70	71	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	6	2	17.7	15.9	1.81	16.9	19.1	-2.14
Malik Allen	11	12	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.02	7	7	0	14.7	17.9	-3.13	15.2	17.6	-2.34
Udonis Haslem	29	30	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	16	-18	18.0	17.1	0.85	17.1	17.4	-0.29
Wang Zhi-zhi	12	11	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	14	-14	18.2	17.3	0.84	18.1	17.1	0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.66,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 77, MIA 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
DAL 78, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.5%
CHA 80, ATL 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%