NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	99		Excitement	8.0 [237]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +31.1%
Dallas Mavericks	108		Comeback	1.9 [756]		LVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): -22.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.26,0.15,0.14	0.04	0.08	-0.03	17	53%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0.13	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,-0.02,0.15,0.15,0.13	0.02	0.10	-0.02	21	52%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	11	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Gerald Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	12	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	4	20%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Doug Christie	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22,-0.22	-0.05	-0.15	0.02	23	48%	-0.08	3	-0.14	4	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.11	0.20	-0.01	17	68%	0.38	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.07	-0.02	17	54%	0.15	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.02	0.02	13	66%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.03	0.01	15	53%	0.13	6	-0.19	2	50%	-0.02
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	17	36%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	8	33%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	29.2	18.7	25.4	3.7	33.8	136.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +50.0%

SAC -9.3%

SAC -0.7%

DAL +7.0%

DAL +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.1	14.0	15.7	97.1	104.9	100.5
season	14.7	14.6		106.9	109.2
opponent	15.6	15.6		105.0	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.0	13.0	15.1	14.3	14.1
DAL	15.4	13.1	13.7	14.0	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	60	61	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-8	7	13.7	14.6	-0.88	14.2	13.7	0.56
Anthony Peeler	18	17	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-7	5	14.5	14.0	0.51	11.4	14.5	-3.19
Gerald Wallace	7	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-4	-1	20.9	13.6	7.28	9.1	14.4	-5.23
Brad Miller	90	92	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.25	0	-9	9	13.5	18.6	-5.11	14.3	12.0	2.26
Vlade Divac	71	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-6	3	15.0	12.0	2.99	14.4	13.2	1.19
Darius Songaila	26	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	0	-9	15.1	13.7	1.34	12.4	14.6	-2.19
Peja Stojakovic	95	96	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-5	1	13.6	20.9	-7.28	14.4	9.1	5.23
Mike Bibby	84	86	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.27	-7	-2	-5	14.0	14.5	-0.51	14.5	11.4	3.19
Bobby Jackson	59	60	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.16	-14	5	-19	13.8	14.4	-0.59	13.7	14.5	-0.81

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	68	68	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.18	22	-13	35	13.7	14.7	-0.97	14.6	13.0	1.57
Travis Best	23	23	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.09	15	-6	21	15.5	13.6	1.93	15.3	13.7	1.64
Michael Finley	89	87	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	5	-1	14.7	9.9	4.82	13.8	15.5	-1.63
Shawn Bradley	42	39	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	5	-1	15.7	12.8	2.90	15.3	13.3	1.95
Dirk Nowitzki	85	83	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	5	-1	13.8	15.2	-1.39	13.6	16.2	-2.56
Josh Howard	54	57	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.11	10	-1	11	12.9	15.2	-2.34	13.9	14.3	-0.46
Antoine Walker	74	74	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.34	-8	17	-25	13.6	15.0	-1.32	13.9	14.5	-0.53
Steve Nash	80	79	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.14	-6	15	-21	13.6	15.5	-1.93	13.7	15.3	-1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.71,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.57,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 88, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.87,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,1	92.1%
HOU 88, SAS 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.5,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.75,0.55,0.45,0.84,1	91.7%
PHI 88, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.89,0.96,1	91.3%