NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	7.2 [379]		MVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): +9.1%
New York Knicks	77		Comeback	1.9 [342]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (NYK): -30.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	11	73%	0.16	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Malik Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	5	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	17	68%	0.27	5	-0.23	4	75%	-0.00
John Wallace	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Caron Butler	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	12	57%	-0.00	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	8	44%	-0.07	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.06	-0.01	12	64%	0.12	2	-0.13	4	100%	0.03
Allan Houston	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	8	55%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	7	56%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Frank Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	5	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	11	29%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.15	-0.03	17	47%	0.03	4	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.3,-0.31	-0.31	-0.14	-0.18	-0.01	11	18%	-0.18	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	31.2	16.6	23.5	2.6	34.0	133.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +50.3%

NYK -4.2%

MIA +0.7%

NYK -4.5%

MIA +7.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	17.8	15.8	15.7	98.8	90.6	100.5
season	16.2	15.5		99.3	98.6
opponent	15.8	15.9		100.8	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	18.8	18.6	18.5	17.8
NYK	17.2	17.2	14.1	15.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	71	71	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.19	16	-8	24	18.2	16.1	2.05	16.5	12.3	4.26
Lamar Odom	78	76	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.30	11	-3	14	17.3	23.2	-5.98	15.8	16.3	-0.54
Rafer Alston	79	79	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.25	11	-3	14	17.4	22.3	-4.86	16.0	13.5	2.53
Caron Butler	72	71	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.21	10	-2	12	17.3	20.6	-3.28	16.3	13.7	2.55
Brian Grant	41	40	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	3	2	18.1	17.5	0.61	16.4	15.4	1.00
Malik Allen	29	30	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	1	6	17.2	18.2	-0.99	15.6	16.0	-0.33
John Wallace	7	6	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	11	-14	22.3	17.4	4.86	13.5	16.0	-2.53
Wang Zhi-zhi	16	15	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	12	-16	18.2	17.7	0.44	14.9	16.1	-1.19
Udonis Haslem	37	37	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.10	-13	21	-34	19.4	16.7	2.68	13.8	17.4	-3.61

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Othella Harrington	25	25	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-11	14	17.0	15.3	1.69	18.9	17.4	1.54
Keith Van Horn	48	47	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	-4	0	15.6	16.1	-0.51	18.7	16.8	1.89
Dikembe Mutombo	29	29	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.01	-6	-2	-4	16.6	15.4	1.17	17.1	18.2	-1.09
Allan Houston	39	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	1	-10	17.2	14.7	2.51	15.8	19.6	-3.74
Frank Williams	38	37	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.35	2	-10	12	15.8	15.9	-0.10	19.6	16.5	3.06
Michael Doleac	56	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-6	4	15.4	16.6	-1.17	18.2	17.1	1.09
Anfernee Hardaway	56	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-9	10	15.2	17.0	-1.80	18.3	16.8	1.54
Kurt Thomas	60	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.22	-11	3	-14	15.3	17.0	-1.69	17.4	18.9	-1.54
Stephon Marbury	74	76	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.25	-14	6	-20	15.8	16.4	-0.59	17.1	23.2	-6.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.43,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 101, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.05,0	92.8%
MIL 91, ORL 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.08,0	92.1%
PHI 89, ORL 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.05,0.01,0	91.9%