NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	3.7 [1057]		MVP	James Posey (MEM): +9.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	112		Comeback	1.6 [898]		LVP	Juwan Howard (ORL): -8.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shammond Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	-0.00	0.00	-0.05	8	47%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	21	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	13	69%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	11	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.06	9	60%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	0.06	14	47%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	8	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	9	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	-0.04	10	68%	0.08	3	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.01	-0.08	18	44%	0.06	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	5	82%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	57%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	10	64%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	14	45%	-0.02	2	-0.01	10	70%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.8	32.0	14.8	23.4	2.4	35.2	135.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +29.9%

ORL -4.2%

MEM +17.9%

MEM +4.1%

MEM +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MEM	NBA	ORL	MEM	NBA
this game	16.0	14.9	15.7	110.8	119.1	100.5
season	15.7	15.3		100.9	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.4		100.5	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.3	16.2	16.3	13.9	16.0
MEM	13.4	13.1	16.4	16.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew DeClercq	35	35	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.37	12	-21	33	15.6	16.2	-0.57	17.4	13.4	4.02
Shammond Williams	28	30	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-8	7	15.3	16.2	-0.91	14.3	15.1	-0.76
Gordan Giricek	46	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.35	10	-19	29	15.4	16.5	-1.16	15.0	14.7	0.38
Rod Strickland	18	17	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.19	-12	3	-15	18.1	15.5	2.60	13.1	15.2	-2.19
Drew Gooden	65	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.29	2	-11	13	15.9	16.2	-0.32	14.8	15.0	-0.16
Steven Hunter	26	25	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	4	-17	16.0	16.0	0.01	12.6	15.7	-3.07
Tracy McGrady	75	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-5	1	15.6	17.4	-1.78	14.8	15.0	-0.18
Tyronn Lue	71	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-8	7	15.7	16.8	-1.07	15.5	12.5	3.00
Juwan Howard	59	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.08	-18	9	-27	16.3	15.3	1.04	14.5	15.4	-0.83
Keith Bogans	42	41	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.12	-20	11	-31	17.1	15.0	2.03	14.4	15.2	-0.86

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stromile Swift	60	59	0.64	-0.14	0.79	-0.06	24	-15	39	13.3	17.6	-4.29	15.4	16.9	-1.50
Shane Battier	52	50	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	-7	23	12.3	18.0	-5.65	15.0	17.1	-2.07
Jason Williams	60	60	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.12	7	2	5	14.5	15.4	-0.92	14.6	18.5	-3.92
Pau Gasol	64	63	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	4	1	14.5	15.7	-1.20	14.8	18.4	-3.66
Mike Miller	55	54	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	6	-3	14.2	15.7	-1.53	14.7	17.7	-3.03
Bonzi Wells	39	39	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	3	3	15.7	14.2	1.53	17.7	14.7	3.03
Bo Outlaw	30	30	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	5	-1	15.7	14.5	1.20	18.4	14.8	3.66
Earl Watson	34	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	7	-5	15.4	14.5	0.92	18.5	14.6	3.92
James Posey	44	44	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.26	-6	15	-21	17.6	12.4	5.15	17.0	15.1	1.89
Lorenzen Wright	32	33	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.32	-16	25	-41	18.1	13.2	4.92	17.1	15.3	1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 98, POR 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	96.3%
ORL 73, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.83,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
WAS 80, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.83,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%