NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	6.4 [516]		MVP	Ron Mercer (SAS): +10.8%
Orlando Magic	94		Comeback	3.3 [175]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -27.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	9	58%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.05	-0.03	11	55%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	34	58%	0.13	2	-0.04	13	69%	-0.05
Jason Hart	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.03	-0.01	10	40%	0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	8	48%	-0.04	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	3	17%	-0.09	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.06

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.08	0.01	12	58%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.01	7	83%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.06	0.02	15	61%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	6	41%	-0.10	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.04
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.22	-0.13	-0.07	27	42%	-0.14	6	-0.14	13	100%	0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	514.3	4.3	30.7	17.4	33.4	3.7	35.2	638.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +58.6%

ORL -21.4%

SAS +20.1%

ORL -4.1%

ORL -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ORL	NBA	SAS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.3	15.7	112.9	102.2	100.5
season	15.9	15.7		100.1	100.9
opponent	15.4	15.8		108.2	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.6	16.8	15.6	15.3	15.8
ORL	16.4	14.5	13.2	17.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	33	32	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.18	16	-5	21	14.8	16.4	-1.63	16.4	14.7	1.75
Rasho Nesterovic	59	58	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.45	4	7	-3	16.4	14.9	1.55	15.8	14.5	1.26
Jason Hart	18	16	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.00	17	-6	23	12.7	16.6	-3.86	17.2	14.9	2.37
Tim Duncan	78	77	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	4	3	15.9	15.7	0.13	14.6	18.6	-3.95
Manu Ginobili	60	59	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.15	1	10	-9	15.7	16.1	-0.34	15.3	15.2	0.08
Hedo Turkoglu	36	36	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.09	8	3	5	15.9	15.8	0.17	15.8	15.0	0.80
Robert Horry	49	49	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.23	11	0	11	15.1	16.6	-1.51	15.8	14.8	0.99
Bruce Bowen	57	57	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	14	-17	16.5	14.8	1.73	14.3	16.9	-2.57
Tony Parker	75	76	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	17	-23	16.6	12.7	3.86	14.9	17.2	-2.37

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	70	71	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.22	9	-20	29	14.5	17.9	-3.44	16.6	13.4	3.24
Keith Bogans	0	2	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.03	0	-11	11	0.0	15.3	-15.29	5.0	16.1	-11.08
Tyronn Lue	77	77	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-16	21	14.9	17.1	-2.12	16.7	11.9	4.79
Andrew DeClercq	25	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-13	15	14.4	15.6	-1.28	15.9	15.8	0.12
Zaza Pachulia	8	7	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-10	9	12.7	15.5	-2.79	14.6	15.9	-1.37
Gordan Giricek	81	80	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-12	13	15.0	17.2	-2.14	16.5	11.9	4.55
Steven Hunter	9	8	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.10	-10	-1	-9	19.9	14.8	5.09	12.4	16.2	-3.79
Tracy McGrady	87	86	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.22	-1	-10	9	15.1	19.2	-4.13	16.4	9.4	6.93
Donnell Harvey	14	17	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.07	-14	3	-17	17.9	14.8	3.02	13.2	16.4	-3.26
Shammond Williams	11	12	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	1	-13	17.2	15.0	2.14	12.2	16.4	-4.12
Rod Strickland	11	11	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.05	-13	2	-15	17.9	14.9	2.97	9.8	16.6	-6.83
Drew Gooden	67	67	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.20	-21	10	-31	15.9	13.6	2.27	15.8	16.0	-0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.28,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.17,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, CHH 78	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.69,0.64,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0	91.6%
UTA 116, HOU 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.58,0.41,0.24,0.06,0,0.03,0.01,0,0	90.8%
PHI 83, DET 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.4,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.63,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.17,0.05,0.04,0	89.9%