NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	103		Excitement	8.2 [199]		MVP	Anfernee Hardaway (PHX): +23.6%
Phoenix Suns	99		Comeback	1.2 [556]		LVP	Shawn Marion (PHX): -35.4%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.10	-0.00	9	65%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	17	47%	0.04	1	-0.01	6	67%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	19	56%	0.06	4	-0.09	5	40%	-0.05
Horace Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.04	0.01	10	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Bryon Russell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.01,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	10	56%	0.09	4	-0.18	12	67%	0.04
Kobe Bryant	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.14	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	12	44%	0.02	2	-0.16	10	70%	0.03

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.11	0.00	8	88%	0.24	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.1,0.1,0.33,0.23	0.23	0.04	0.19	-0.00	15	59%	0.29	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cezary Trybanski	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	11	52%	0.04	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.09	0.00	24	51%	-0.04	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.35	-0.35	-0.12	-0.25	-0.01	23	31%	-0.35	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.0	29.2	16.5	26.2	2.8	43.0	146.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +20.0%

LAL +13.1%

LAL +35.5%

PHX -21.8%

LAL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	PHX	NBA	LAL	PHX	NBA
this game	14.3	15.7	15.7	107.3	103.1	100.5
season	15.4	14.6		102.8	99.6
opponent	15.9	15.6		103.6	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.0	14.2	14.0	15.0	14.3
PHX	15.4	17.7	16.0	13.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devean George	90	89	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.39	10	-6	16	14.0	19.8	-5.88	15.5	17.9	-2.35
Shaquille O'Neal	80	79	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.30	8	-4	12	14.0	15.7	-1.71	15.6	15.8	-0.18
Gary Payton	75	74	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	-2	8	13.9	15.7	-1.78	15.1	17.6	-2.48
Karl Malone	75	75	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.23	5	-1	6	14.0	15.6	-1.66	15.5	16.4	-0.96
Derek Fisher	52	54	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.30	-1	5	-6	13.1	15.8	-2.76	15.9	15.5	0.40
Kobe Bryant	72	71	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.35	-3	7	-10	15.3	11.3	4.04	15.6	15.9	-0.33
Bryon Russell	18	19	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.16	-1	5	-6	16.2	13.9	2.27	17.2	15.3	1.85
Kareem Rush	6	7	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.03	-1	5	-6	18.5	14.0	4.46	19.3	15.4	3.89
Horace Grant	14	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	8	-12	17.7	13.7	3.97	16.9	15.5	1.47

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Casey Jacobsen	32	29	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.16	7	-11	18	15.8	15.6	0.20	13.8	14.5	-0.71
Cezary Trybanski	1	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-4	4	1.0	15.8	-14.83	2.0	14.5	-12.45
Zarko Cabarkapa	8	6	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.06	-4	0	-4	19.0	15.4	3.62	16.0	14.2	1.79
Jake Voskuhl	51	53	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-6	8	15.9	15.4	0.44	15.5	12.9	2.56
Tom Gugliotta	28	29	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	0	-4	16.0	15.5	0.51	13.0	14.9	-1.94
Anfernee Hardaway	55	57	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.43	5	-9	14	15.9	15.3	0.59	14.3	14.3	-0.02
Amar'e Stoudemire	58	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.23	-6	2	-8	15.3	16.3	-0.97	14.1	14.7	-0.64
Stephon Marbury	89	90	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.41	-1	-3	2	15.6	17.0	-1.43	14.5	12.2	2.30
Shawn Marion	83	83	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.35	-7	3	-10	15.6	16.4	-0.82	14.0	16.3	-2.30
Joe Johnson	75	74	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	7	-18	15.5	16.1	-0.60	14.6	13.3	1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.2,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.36,0.16,0.26,0.31,0.54,0.31,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 118, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.31,0.39,0.31,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.38,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.28,0.2,0.28,0.32,0.02,0	91.4%
MEM 102, DEN 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.39,0.3,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.19,0.31,0.29,0.38,0.31,0.21,0.33,0.42,0	91.2%
SAS 113, TOR 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.17,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.38,0.21,0.14,0.01,0	90.9%