NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	86		Excitement	9.0 [139]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +21.3%
Toronto Raptors	87		Comeback	7.0 [271]		LVP	Theo Ratliff (ATL): -23.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.11	0.01	13	72%	0.24	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.10
Glenn Robinson	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,0.07	-0.11	0.17	-0.02	22	37%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Ira Newble	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jermaine Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,-0.07	0.00	-0.13	-0.05	18	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Alan Henderson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	5	25%	-0.08	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Dion Glover	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	7	25%	-0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	-0.23	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.06	-0.16	0.01	10	50%	-0.05	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.14	0.02	23	55%	0.23	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.17
Alvin Williams	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.01	6	67%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.00	11	57%	0.14	3	-0.10	1	0%	-0.04
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	90%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mamadou N'diaye	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.06	6	33%	-0.05
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	10	27%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Jefferies	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	7	44%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	8	17%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.16	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	28.3	16.7	22.2	2.3	33.5	129.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +31.4%

TOR +15.4%

TOR +1.4%

ATL -6.5%

TOR +8.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.4	16.1	15.5	93.5	95.6	101.6
season	15.1	16.2		99.5	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.7		105.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.3	16.2	14.7	16.7	15.4
TOR	13.9	15.8	17.4	17.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	13	12	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-1	1	17.8	15.0	2.85	14.9	16.3	-1.34
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	79	77	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.45	11	-12	23	15.1	17.1	-1.95	16.3	14.9	1.44
Jason Terry	82	82	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	1	-3	15.6	13.4	2.25	16.0	16.3	-0.28
Alan Henderson	29	29	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	0	-1	14.4	15.9	-1.44	16.9	15.7	1.25
Dion Glover	52	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-1	1	14.9	16.0	-1.10	15.2	17.3	-2.15
Jermaine Jackson	12	10	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.40	2	-3	5	13.1	15.7	-2.67	15.1	16.2	-1.10
Ira Newble	47	47	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	4	-9	16.0	14.8	1.18	17.3	14.8	2.53
Theo Ratliff	67	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	5	-11	16.0	13.7	2.31	15.6	17.5	-1.93
Glenn Robinson	79	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	3	-7	15.2	16.8	-1.59	16.2	15.5	0.72

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	73	72	0.93	-0.43	1.37	0.52	14	-13	27	15.4	19.0	-3.64	15.7	14.3	1.34
Vince Carter	75	74	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.46	7	-6	13	15.4	19.2	-3.77	15.6	14.7	0.85
Michael Bradley	39	40	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.45	3	-2	5	17.1	15.3	1.84	16.2	14.8	1.46
Voshon Lenard	51	52	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.57	-3	4	-7	17.2	14.6	2.55	15.8	14.9	0.93
Alvin Williams	60	62	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.53	-9	10	-19	16.3	15.7	0.61	15.1	16.0	-0.89
Rafer Alston	31	30	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.06	10	-9	19	15.7	16.3	-0.61	16.0	15.1	0.89
Morris Peterson	25	26	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.05	1	0	1	17.4	15.6	1.77	15.8	15.2	0.62
Chris Jefferies	31	32	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	4	-7	14.8	16.7	-1.93	14.0	16.1	-2.15
Antonio Davis	60	61	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.06	-9	10	-19	15.8	16.6	-0.86	14.9	16.4	-1.44
Mamadou N'diaye	10	11	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.09	-6	7	-13	19.0	15.7	3.28	13.2	15.7	-2.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.47,0.29,0.57,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 102, NOP 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.26,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.3,0.34,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.41,1	91.7%
UTA 96, NOP 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.58,1	91.4%
POR 107, MIN 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.45,0.58,1	90.9%