NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	81		Excitement	5.6 [664]		MVP	Jon Barry (DET): +8.2%
Detroit Pistons	71		Comeback	1.0 [479]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -20.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter McCarty	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	70%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Paul Pierce	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.05	-0.03	25	52%	0.07	3	-0.06	14	79%	0.02
Eric Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tony Delk	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Bremer	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	44%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	0.02	-0.03	16	44%	0.03	4	-0.12	7	29%	-0.10

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	7	69%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Hubert Davis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	8	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	10	27%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.20	-0.01	-0.08	15	25%	-0.07	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.08	0.01	17	45%	-0.12	4	-0.09	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.3	31.5	15.8	28.2	2.5	29.3	131.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +42.7%

BOS +14.1%

DET -1.8%

BOS +1.1%

DET -6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	16.3	17.2	15.5	94.2	82.6	101.6
season	15.6	16.8		99.3	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.5		97.8	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.1	15.6	17.0	17.5	16.3
DET	19.1	16.4	15.7	17.6	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	77	76	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.23	13	-3	16	16.0	19.1	-3.14	17.0	18.6	-1.60
J.R. Bremer	66	64	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.25	8	2	6	16.3	16.2	0.07	16.8	18.2	-1.34
Tony Battie	54	52	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	-1	12	16.3	16.3	0.03	17.1	17.3	-0.18
Paul Pierce	79	78	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	3	4	16.3	16.7	-0.45	16.8	21.2	-4.48
Eric Williams	35	37	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	0	10	16.6	16.1	0.45	19.9	15.1	4.84
Grant Long	39	39	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.20	-3	13	-16	16.3	16.3	0.06	15.7	18.4	-2.64
Tony Delk	29	30	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.08	6	4	2	16.3	16.3	0.06	17.6	17.0	0.64
Mark Blount	32	34	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	11	-12	16.3	16.3	-0.03	17.3	17.1	0.18
Walter McCarty	19	20	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.05	-1	11	-12	17.1	16.1	1.03	17.7	17.0	0.67

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-10	10	0.0	17.2	-17.19	5.0	16.4	-11.44
Hubert Davis	10	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-8	6	18.8	17.0	1.83	16.8	16.2	0.53
Mehmet Okur	35	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-14	18	17.9	16.7	1.23	16.8	16.0	0.76
Michael Curry	34	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	-4	-2	17.5	17.0	0.57	15.3	17.0	-1.71
Jon Barry	45	45	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.21	-1	-9	8	16.9	17.5	-0.53	17.0	15.6	1.37
Richard Hamilton	46	46	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	1	-12	16.7	17.8	-1.10	15.9	16.7	-0.84
Corliss Williamson	47	45	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-8	6	17.7	16.6	1.09	16.8	15.7	1.14
Ben Wallace	71	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-2	-6	17.7	14.9	2.81	16.7	14.4	2.29
Chauncey Billups	76	77	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.23	-8	-2	-6	17.0	18.8	-1.83	16.2	16.8	-0.53
Clifford Robinson	66	67	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.07	-16	6	-22	16.3	20.2	-3.93	15.8	18.1	-2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.41,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.02,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 95, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0	94.6%
ORL 97, MIN 84	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%
ATL 93, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.21,0.1,0.15,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.03,0,0,0	93.8%