NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	83		Excitement	4.8 [837]		MVP	Caron Butler (MIA): +6.3%
Miami Heat	73		Comeback	1.1 [1011]		LVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): -16.4%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Harpring	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	7	74%	0.08	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	62%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	5	70%	0.07	3	-0.05	10	80%	0.05
Karl Malone	0.01	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.05	22	53%	0.08	4	-0.07	11	82%	0.03
Tony Massenburg	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	8	41%	-0.05	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.03	-0.04	14	67%	0.14	5	-0.08	8	75%	-0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	53%	0.01	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	7	50%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	9	35%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Best	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	13	29%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	12	25%	-0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.19	-0.01	-0.04	15	21%	-0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.7	29.4	15.7	34.1	1.8	32.0	142.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +36.2%

UTA +12.1%

MIA -2.4%

UTA +0.9%

UTA +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIA	NBA	UTA	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.6	15.5	94.3	83.0	101.6
season	16.3	16.3		103.1	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.3		100.7	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.7	20.2	14.9	14.3	16.1
MIA	19.5	15.0	14.5	17.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Harpring	66	67	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.12	13	-3	16	14.9	19.8	-4.86	17.3	14.4	2.86
Greg Ostertag	68	68	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.11	11	-1	12	16.4	15.2	1.20	17.3	14.1	3.17
Karl Malone	73	72	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.18	8	2	6	15.2	20.4	-5.15	17.0	14.9	2.03
John Stockton	59	59	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.14	8	2	6	15.0	18.4	-3.47	16.4	17.1	-0.70
Calbert Cheaney	42	42	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	7	-4	14.9	17.3	-2.43	17.4	15.9	1.44
Andrei Kirilenko	43	42	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	12	-14	17.1	15.2	1.85	15.5	17.7	-2.20
Scott Padgett	24	25	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	7	-4	18.7	15.2	3.55	14.0	17.6	-3.63
Mark Jackson	29	29	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	8	-6	18.4	15.0	3.47	17.1	16.4	0.70
Carlos Arroyo	7	8	0.12	0.39	-0.27	0.03	3	7	-4	19.4	15.8	3.59	17.1	16.5	0.57
DeShawn Stevenson	18	17	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.00	3	7	-4	20.0	15.1	4.87	14.6	17.1	-2.42
Tony Massenburg	11	11	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.08	-2	12	-14	14.6	16.3	-1.70	15.6	16.7	-1.10

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	28	25	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.03	-6	-4	-2	16.0	16.9	-0.83	18.8	15.1	3.74
Travis Best	52	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-10	10	18.1	14.5	3.60	16.4	15.7	0.68
Vladimir Stepania	47	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.09	-5	-5	0	17.4	15.6	1.81	18.8	13.2	5.61
Anthony Carter	19	19	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.01	-9	-1	-8	13.9	17.3	-3.45	17.4	15.8	1.59
Brian Grant	58	60	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-7	4	17.0	15.9	1.12	14.6	19.4	-4.79
Malik Allen	43	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-4	-2	15.5	17.6	-2.09	13.9	18.4	-4.49
Caron Butler	68	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-7	4	16.5	16.9	-0.39	15.9	17.0	-1.20
Mike James	61	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.20	-5	-5	0	15.4	19.3	-3.83	16.3	15.8	0.45
Rasual Butler	64	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	3	-16	17.4	14.4	3.01	15.7	17.2	-1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 101, WAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.16,0.04,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0	95.2%
BKN 104, PHX 82	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
TOR 99, CHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%