NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	91		Excitement	6.9 [428]		MVP	Shawn Bradley (DAL): +14.1%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	3.3 [658]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -15.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Bradley	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	8	76%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.07	-0.00	22	45%	0.09	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Raef LaFrentz	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	9	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	11	65%	0.13	3	-0.10	12	92%	0.07
Evan Eschmeyer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Eduardo Najera	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,-0.04	-0.01	-0.06	-0.04	17	44%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	5	30%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	-0.00	17	57%	0.11	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	2	60%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	71%	0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.03	11	62%	0.00	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.01
Travis Best	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	11	42%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	11	42%	-0.08	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	14	52%	0.08	5	-0.24	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	1.8	26.1	17.4	27.1	1.8	35.2	131.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +12.1%

MIA -3.7%

DAL +21.5%

DAL +18.4%

DAL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	16.0	15.5	104.6	102.3	101.6
season	15.1	16.3		108.6	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.3		100.7	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	18.1	18.3	14.1	18.1	17.1
MIA	17.9	13.6	18.6	14.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	43	44	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.41	6	-4	10	16.9	17.4	-0.50	14.4	17.6	-3.24
Dirk Nowitzki	75	76	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.42	5	-3	8	16.9	18.2	-1.22	16.1	15.4	0.72
Steve Nash	60	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	-2	6	16.9	17.7	-0.80	16.2	15.6	0.63
Eduardo Najera	60	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	0	2	16.6	18.3	-1.71	14.7	19.1	-4.46
Michael Finley	72	72	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	2	-2	17.6	14.7	2.96	16.3	14.4	1.92
Nick Van Exel	22	22	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.10	4	-2	6	18.4	16.7	1.73	16.1	16.0	0.14
Adrian Griffin	28	27	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	2	-2	15.7	17.8	-2.12	14.3	16.7	-2.40
Raja Bell	21	22	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	2	-2	17.0	17.2	-0.21	19.7	14.7	4.94
Evan Eschmeyer	3	2	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	2	-2	30.3	16.6	13.69	12.5	16.1	-3.57
Avery Johnson	5	5	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.03	-4	6	-10	14.4	17.3	-2.88	13.2	16.2	-2.96
Raef LaFrentz	46	44	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.05	-7	9	-16	17.6	16.6	1.05	18.1	13.9	4.21

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	72	73	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.23	6	-8	14	15.8	16.9	-1.14	17.0	17.7	-0.71
Anthony Carter	17	17	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.12	1	-3	4	14.7	16.3	-1.59	18.4	16.8	1.61
Sean Marks	22	21	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-2	2	15.3	16.2	-0.96	17.9	16.9	0.98
Vladimir Stepania	33	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-1	0	15.1	16.6	-1.49	16.5	17.5	-1.06
Malik Allen	65	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-1	0	16.0	16.1	-0.14	16.3	19.4	-3.07
Mike James	64	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.46	3	-5	8	14.7	19.5	-4.80	16.8	17.8	-0.99
Travis Best	38	38	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.22	-7	5	-12	17.7	14.6	3.10	17.8	16.6	1.15
Brian Grant	54	55	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.37	-2	0	-2	16.9	14.5	2.37	18.1	15.3	2.80
Caron Butler	70	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.29	-9	7	-16	16.7	13.0	3.71	16.8	18.4	-1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.6,0.5,0.62,0.43,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.01,0.03,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 94, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.03,0,0	93.0%
DEN 134, NOP 131	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0	92.3%
POR 87, CHI 78	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.47,0.45,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0	92.3%