NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	104		Excitement	4.5 [904]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): +12.2%
Chicago Bulls	89		Comeback	1.2 [845]		LVP	Eddy Curry (CHI): -15.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.02	-0.08	11	61%	0.14	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	21	48%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Hunter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	11	69%	0.08	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	14	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jacque Vaughn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	19	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	14	93%	0.03
Andrew DeClercq	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	61%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	14	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.04	0.04	21	50%	0.01	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	5	81%	0.04	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	12	46%	-0.00	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jay Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.13	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.04
Eddy Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	1	25%	-0.03	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.6	29.2	15.6	28.2	2.6	29.0	130.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +6.7%

ORL +14.6%

CHI -0.2%

ORL +24.7%

ORL +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	13.8	14.7	15.5	101.0	89.9	101.6
season	14.6	15.0		102.7	98.3
opponent	15.1	15.8		103.3	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	10.0	12.9	14.5	19.1	13.8
CHI	16.3	12.8	15.5	14.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	34	33	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.03	21	-6	27	11.4	15.0	-3.54	17.1	13.5	3.56
Tracy McGrady	90	89	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.01	19	-4	23	14.2	11.3	2.87	14.8	14.3	0.46
Drew Gooden	56	56	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.18	24	-9	33	14.8	12.6	2.24	15.6	13.5	2.13
Andrew DeClercq	38	37	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.06	16	-1	17	13.0	14.3	-1.25	17.4	13.1	4.21
Gordan Giricek	83	79	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.16	22	-7	29	13.4	15.7	-2.34	15.5	11.7	3.78
Pat Garrity	64	61	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	10	-5	13.7	14.1	-0.42	13.8	16.2	-2.38
Chris Whitney	17	17	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.10	-3	18	-21	14.9	13.6	1.28	12.6	15.1	-2.50
Steven Hunter	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	18	-21	18.7	13.6	5.13	9.2	14.9	-5.70
Jeryl Sasser	16	13	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.19	-8	23	-31	13.0	14.0	-0.97	12.5	15.1	-2.60
Darrell Armstrong	69	66	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.09	-6	21	-27	15.0	11.4	3.54	13.5	17.1	-3.56
Shawn Kemp	44	40	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.16	-12	27	-39	13.0	14.4	-1.46	12.9	15.9	-3.01

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Hoiberg	53	55	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.12	6	-21	27	13.6	16.0	-2.36	15.7	11.7	4.02
Roger Mason Jr.	10	9	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-15	15	13.6	14.8	-1.24	12.8	13.9	-1.14
Jamal Crawford	54	55	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-11	7	13.9	15.7	-1.74	14.7	12.8	1.96
Lonny Baxter	34	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-11	7	14.2	15.0	-0.82	14.3	13.6	0.67
Tyson Chandler	66	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	-4	-7	14.9	14.3	0.62	12.7	16.0	-3.30
Donyell Marshall	68	71	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-8	1	14.3	15.6	-1.26	14.6	12.1	2.45
Eddy Curry	26	26	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-4	-7	16.8	14.0	2.78	11.7	14.5	-2.84
Jay Williams	45	48	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.10	-11	-4	-7	15.7	13.9	1.74	12.8	14.7	-1.96
Jalen Rose	89	94	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.08	-15	0	-15	14.8	13.6	1.24	13.9	12.8	1.14
Trenton Hassell	50	53	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.02	-18	3	-21	15.4	14.0	1.46	13.0	14.7	-1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.54,0.49,0.37,0.31,0.28,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 86, NOH 78	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.31,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
MEM 116, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.13,0.17,0.12,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
NYK 91, PHI 71	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.22,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%