NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	82		Excitement	5.5 [678]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +20.3%
New Orleans Hornets	91		Comeback	2.2 [789]		LVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): -18.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.20	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.15	0.08	0.03	13	80%	0.22	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Vladimir Stepania	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Lampley	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	36%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Allen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Eddie Jones	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	17	35%	-0.11	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Travis Best	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	14	47%	-0.05	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.02
Rasual Butler	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.03	-0.04	10	10%	-0.12	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	5	60%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	7	76%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	7	57%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	17	50%	0.08	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Robert Pack	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Moiso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	15	47%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	0.01
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	9	67%	0.04	4	-0.12	3	67%	-0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.02	0.01	16	33%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.3	28.6	15.7	22.7	2.6	33.4	129.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +38.4%

NOH +2.8%

NOH +15.9%

MIA -7.9%

NOH +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOH	NBA	MIA	NOH	NBA
this game	16.1	16.1	15.5	91.1	102.2	101.6
season	16.3	15.9		94.6	101.6
opponent	15.6	15.9		99.6	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.6	13.6	16.2	16.6	16.1
NOH	15.7	16.5	13.8	18.5	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	39	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-12	15	14.9	17.0	-2.12	16.9	15.4	1.56
Vladimir Stepania	51	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.25	-1	-8	7	15.6	16.8	-1.23	16.0	16.2	-0.18
Malik Allen	51	51	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	-1	-7	16.8	15.3	1.53	15.3	17.1	-1.83
Sean Lampley	33	36	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.15	-5	-4	-1	15.9	16.2	-0.34	14.8	16.9	-2.15
Rasual Butler	51	50	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-1	-7	16.8	15.2	1.57	15.8	16.4	-0.68
Travis Best	79	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-5	1	15.9	17.4	-1.41	15.9	16.8	-0.90
Brian Grant	74	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	0	-9	16.4	14.7	1.67	16.8	12.9	3.85
Eddie Jones	72	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.11	-13	4	-17	16.2	15.9	0.29	16.4	14.6	1.81

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Lynch	51	49	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.04	19	-10	29	16.4	15.6	0.83	16.8	15.3	1.57
Jamaal Magloire	65	64	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-2	13	16.4	15.2	1.10	16.6	14.9	1.74
Jamal Mashburn	74	74	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.26	6	3	3	16.0	16.4	-0.41	16.1	16.2	-0.16
David Wesley	67	70	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	2	5	16.0	16.2	-0.23	16.1	16.0	0.09
P.J. Brown	69	70	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.23	2	7	-5	16.4	14.9	1.49	16.3	15.4	0.93
Kenny Anderson	44	44	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	6	-3	14.8	17.3	-2.45	14.9	17.3	-2.42
Jerome Moiso	19	19	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	2	5	15.7	16.2	-0.47	15.8	16.2	-0.36
Robert Traylor	21	23	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.05	-2	11	-13	14.8	16.4	-1.63	15.6	16.3	-0.75
Courtney Alexander	29	30	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.14	-5	14	-19	15.9	16.1	-0.24	16.8	15.8	0.97
Robert Pack	6	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	12	-15	22.8	15.6	7.27	12.1	16.5	-4.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.57,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.7,0.68,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 76, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%
UTA 103, MIN 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.74,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	94.4%
IND 95, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.99,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	94.3%