NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	117		Excitement	5.2 [763]		MVP	Toni Kukoc (MIL): +15.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	114		Comeback	1.5 [418]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIL): -12.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.14	0.05	0.05	-0.05	19	63%	0.18	2	-0.04	16	75%	0.04
Wally Szczerbiak	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.02	12	72%	0.15	2	-0.04	12	100%	0.04
Troy Hudson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	11	70%	0.09	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	14	57%	0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	8	69%	0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marc Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	4	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.00	9	80%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	10	61%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.03	16	56%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	0.02	14	54%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	17	50%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.01	0.03	21	43%	-0.09	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	26.6	15.7	25.0	1.8	39.3	134.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +42.0%

MIN +12.2%

MIN +4.6%

MIL -9.4%

MIN +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIL	NBA	MIN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	14.5	15.5	119.4	112.9	101.6
season	14.9	15.4		104.0	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.8		106.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.4	13.1	17.0	13.4	14.4
MIL	15.0	16.9	14.3	12.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	85	88	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.29	16	-13	29	14.0	17.0	-3.00	14.8	12.8	2.04
Wally Szczerbiak	80	81	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.22	14	-11	25	14.1	15.7	-1.62	14.7	13.9	0.80
Anthony Peeler	86	87	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.29	10	-7	17	14.6	12.7	1.97	14.4	15.6	-1.19
Troy Hudson	80	81	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.26	11	-8	19	14.4	14.3	0.08	14.6	14.5	0.06
Rasho Nesterovic	75	74	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.07	17	-14	31	15.0	12.4	2.57	15.1	13.1	1.91
Mike Wilks	18	20	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.16	-8	11	-19	14.3	14.4	-0.08	14.5	14.6	-0.06
Marc Jackson	13	13	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	10	-17	15.2	14.3	0.87	15.6	14.4	1.23
Gary Trent	20	21	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.29	-17	20	-37	15.4	14.1	1.26	13.0	14.9	-1.95
Kendall Gill	33	40	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.40	-21	24	-45	13.2	15.0	-1.74	13.5	15.2	-1.69

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	23	24	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.09	7	-10	17	14.0	14.7	-0.76	15.1	14.2	0.91
Desmond Mason	47	46	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.21	8	-11	19	14.4	14.7	-0.34	13.7	15.0	-1.32
Michael Redd	65	59	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.37	11	-14	25	14.1	15.3	-1.14	13.3	16.1	-2.75
Toni Kukoc	65	60	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.48	11	-14	25	14.1	15.3	-1.23	14.0	15.1	-1.07
Gary Payton	80	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.42	1	-4	5	14.5	14.9	-0.39	14.6	13.6	0.94
Dan Gadzuric	35	36	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.05	-15	12	-27	15.7	13.9	1.75	15.8	13.6	2.27
Tim Thomas	63	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-1	-1	13.6	16.2	-2.59	14.7	13.8	0.94
Anthony Mason	51	50	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.08	-20	17	-37	16.7	12.4	4.29	15.4	13.3	2.09
Sam Cassell	76	75	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.29	-16	13	-29	14.5	14.7	-0.18	13.9	15.9	-1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 99, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0	94.9%
MIN 92, HOU 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.11,0.07,0,0	94.4%
GSW 109, WAS 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%