NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	7.4 [321]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +14.3%
Dallas Mavericks	98		Comeback	4.6 [782]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -26.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Best	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.12	0.08	0.08	0.04	13	72%	0.19	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Rasual Butler	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	6	57%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	12	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	15	43%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	9	32%	-0.12	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Brian Grant	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	7	29%	-0.06	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.11	-0.11	0.04	15	40%	-0.17	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.08	0.02	12	68%	0.18	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	9	63%	0.08	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	64%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	14	47%	0.00	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	0.00	20	49%	0.00	2	-0.04	11	91%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.5	27.3	16.5	27.2	2.7	35.1	138.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +38.1%

DAL +22.0%

MIA -40.8%

DAL +31.2%

MIA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.9	14.9	15.5	100.0	110.1	101.6
season	16.3	15.1		94.6	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.9		102.0	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.6	17.0	16.6	16.4	16.9
DAL	14.4	18.2	14.0	13.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	18	17	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.01	9	-15	24	17.1	16.8	0.23	17.9	14.2	3.73
Brian Grant	51	50	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-7	8	16.0	17.9	-1.91	15.1	14.7	0.41
Travis Best	72	70	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-5	4	15.8	20.6	-4.83	14.7	15.7	-0.97
LaPhonso Ellis	41	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-6	6	16.1	17.5	-1.30	14.9	14.9	-0.04
Malik Allen	52	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	2	-10	17.9	15.5	2.38	14.7	15.2	-0.46
Mike James	54	51	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-4	2	17.1	16.6	0.50	15.5	14.1	1.42
Vladimir Stepania	37	35	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	-2	-2	18.5	15.8	2.70	16.1	14.1	2.01
Eddie House	58	58	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	7	-20	17.1	16.6	0.49	13.7	17.2	-3.44
Caron Butler	77	74	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.32	-12	6	-18	17.0	16.2	0.80	14.4	17.5	-3.14

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	39	39	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.30	14	-8	22	15.5	14.5	1.01	17.6	16.4	1.21
Michael Finley	79	82	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.32	12	-6	18	14.5	18.0	-3.47	17.0	16.1	0.86
Dirk Nowitzki	81	84	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-6	18	14.8	16.4	-1.60	17.4	11.4	6.02
Steve Nash	74	78	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	0	6	14.9	14.9	-0.01	16.1	20.9	-4.79
Nick Van Exel	54	55	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.45	-1	7	-8	15.1	14.6	0.48	17.4	16.0	1.41
Raja Bell	25	28	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	2	2	12.5	15.9	-3.34	17.2	16.7	0.50
Evan Eschmeyer	10	9	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.04	-1	7	-8	13.8	15.1	-1.26	17.4	16.8	0.64
Raef LaFrentz	37	37	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	7	-8	14.7	15.1	-0.42	17.0	16.8	0.22
Adrian Griffin	9	11	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	8	-10	13.7	15.1	-1.40	12.8	17.4	-4.60
Walt Williams	10	9	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.01	-4	10	-14	18.0	14.5	3.47	16.2	16.9	-0.72
Shawn Bradley	27	28	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.02	-9	15	-24	17.6	13.8	3.78	16.1	17.2	-1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.32,0.21,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.9,0.96,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 83, BOS 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.61,0.68,0.89,0.99,0.95,1	92.6%
CHH 76, PHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.4,0.32,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.85,0.83,0.67,0.78,0.94,0.96,1	92.1%
HOU 90, PHX 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.35,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.53,0.38,0.32,0.59,0.65,0.86,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	92.0%