NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	83		Excitement	5.7 [650]		MVP	Walter McCarty (BOS): +15.3%
Boston Celtics	91		Comeback	1.2 [1056]		LVP	Mike Miller (ORL): -44.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeryl Sasser	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	0.01	17	68%	0.16	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	9	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Andrew DeClercq	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	60%	0.07	5	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Pat Burke	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	12	19%	-0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Miller	-0.44	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26,-0.26,-0.3,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.35,-0.35,-0.4,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.44	-0.29	-0.13	0.03	18	26%	-0.24	6	-0.20	6	100%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.13	-0.01	8	69%	0.23	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	15	66%	0.13	5	-0.09	11	82%	-0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	11	55%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Bremer	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	64%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.04	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	25.3	15.7	26.3	1.7	35.0	130.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +61.8%

ORL -0.5%

ORL -20.5%

BOS +3.7%

BOS +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	15.2	15.6	15.5	89.2	96.8	101.6
season	14.6	15.6		102.7	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.8		99.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.1	14.9	13.6	17.3	15.2
BOS	16.2	13.9	17.7	14.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Burke	12	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-10	12	14.2	15.4	-1.11	16.3	15.5	0.78
Jacque Vaughn	55	56	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-6	4	14.5	16.2	-1.64	15.2	16.1	-0.83
Andrew DeClercq	31	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-9	10	15.4	15.1	0.31	16.6	15.1	1.58
Darrell Armstrong	49	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.27	2	-10	12	15.4	15.0	0.32	16.2	14.8	1.40
Ryan Humphrey	31	30	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-3	-2	16.0	14.8	1.18	15.0	15.8	-0.81
Shawn Kemp	58	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.13	-8	0	-8	15.1	15.4	-0.30	15.6	15.5	0.09
Mike Miller	78	81	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.19	-7	-1	-6	14.9	16.7	-1.73	15.4	16.8	-1.37
Jeryl Sasser	90	90	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.22	-7	-1	-6	15.3	13.7	1.60	15.6	15.2	0.35
Pat Garrity	61	63	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.20	-16	8	-24	15.8	14.2	1.61	15.2	16.4	-1.24

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	74	74	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.26	9	-1	10	15.4	16.3	-0.91	15.0	16.0	-0.99
J.R. Bremer	63	61	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.27	5	3	2	15.2	16.3	-1.10	15.2	15.2	-0.05
Paul Pierce	89	87	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.26	5	3	2	15.5	16.6	-1.07	14.9	20.0	-5.11
Walter McCarty	56	56	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	3	2	14.8	16.7	-1.93	15.5	14.8	0.72
Tony Battie	56	54	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	7	-6	15.8	15.2	0.58	14.9	15.6	-0.69
Grant Long	23	21	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.05	9	-1	10	16.9	15.2	1.76	17.1	14.7	2.49
Vin Baker	34	36	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.01	6	2	4	16.4	15.1	1.25	15.5	15.0	0.51
Shammond Williams	33	34	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	7	-6	16.7	15.0	1.76	15.3	15.2	0.17
Kedrick Brown	42	42	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	9	-10	15.0	16.0	-0.97	15.0	15.4	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.87,0.83,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 109, IND 121	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.78,0.83,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.83,0.75,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%
MEM 91, LAC 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.71,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%
UTA 75, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%