NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	93		Excitement	4.1 [978]		MVP	Dan Dickau (ATL): +7.9%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	1.0 [1244]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (ATL): -14.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Dickau	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.01	-0.04	9	55%	0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Ira Newble	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.03	15	60%	0.04	3	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Mike Wilks	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	12	62%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	13	57%	0.01	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	13	33%	-0.08	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	13	63%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.02	8	65%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	16	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	14	64%	-0.04
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	12	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Mengke Bateer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	27%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	4	75%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	40%	-0.04	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	8	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	24.3	16.7	27.2	2.4	32.2	131.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +0.6%

SAS +10.9%

SAS +11.2%

SAS +26.2%

SAS +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAS	NBA	ATL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.0	15.5	15.5	102.2	115.2	101.6
season	15.1	15.7		99.5	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.7		96.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.2	19.7	15.9	14.8	16.0
SAS	14.1	14.6	19.3	14.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	8	9	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-12	11	12.2	16.3	-4.10	14.7	15.6	-0.91
Dion Glover	3	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-11	9	9.0	16.2	-7.23	8.7	15.8	-7.05
Ira Newble	20	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-11	9	16.3	15.9	0.40	17.2	15.0	2.27
Dan Dickau	41	42	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	-4	-5	15.8	16.1	-0.34	15.2	15.7	-0.51
Nazr Mohammed	40	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.05	-9	-4	-5	14.8	16.9	-2.12	15.4	15.5	-0.14
Alan Henderson	28	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	-1	-11	16.2	15.9	0.27	15.1	15.7	-0.60
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	74	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-14	15	16.6	13.5	3.02	16.6	10.9	5.72
Theo Ratliff	47	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.14	-5	-8	3	16.7	15.2	1.56	15.4	15.6	-0.22
Mike Wilks	49	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-5	-3	16.4	15.5	0.82	15.2	15.8	-0.57
Jason Terry	72	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.26	-7	-6	-1	15.7	16.9	-1.14	15.3	16.1	-0.78
Glenn Robinson	73	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	-2	-9	16.2	15.1	1.09	15.1	17.0	-1.90

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	68	66	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.13	21	-8	29	14.7	17.7	-3.00	16.6	14.4	2.14
Steven Smith	52	50	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.06	8	5	3	15.5	15.5	-0.02	14.8	17.5	-2.68
Tony Parker	67	66	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	10	-7	15.3	15.9	-0.59	15.8	16.4	-0.57
Bruce Bowen	56	55	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.02	10	3	7	14.7	16.7	-2.07	16.9	14.6	2.23
David Robinson	45	45	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	6	1	15.8	15.2	0.57	17.5	14.5	3.01
Malik Rose	55	54	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	7	-1	15.7	15.2	0.55	14.5	18.1	-3.57
Manu Ginobili	36	36	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	10	-7	16.7	14.7	2.07	14.6	16.9	-2.23
Steve Kerr	25	25	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	3	7	15.9	15.3	0.59	16.4	15.8	0.57
Stephen Jackson	40	41	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.06	5	8	-3	15.5	15.5	0.02	17.5	14.8	2.68
Kevin Willis	13	14	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.24	-8	21	-29	18.6	15.0	3.64	15.4	16.1	-0.66
Mengke Bateer	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	11.3	15.6	-4.30	9.0	16.2	-7.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 103, HOU 118	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.94,0.89,0.87,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
TOR 83, NOH 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.8,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.82,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
PHI 79, ATL 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.72,0.82,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%