NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	88		Excitement	4.7 [871]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +13.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	97		Comeback	2.0 [895]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): -15.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ira Newble	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	10	52%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	8	78%	0.06	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	100%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Paul Shirley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	18	56%	0.07	5	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Mike Wilks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	6	37%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Dion Glover	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	2	0%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.05
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	17	50%	-0.03	5	-0.12	12	75%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.02	13	66%	0.17	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.03	15	58%	0.12	2	-0.04	6	67%	0.01
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	75%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	9	59%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	11	41%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.5	27.4	15.4	21.5	1.6	30.0	121.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +28.1%

MIL +12.2%

ATL -11.0%

MIL +21.8%

ATL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	17.2	16.1	15.5	102.3	111.5	101.6
season	15.1	15.4		99.5	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.7		106.5	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.0	15.6	18.4	18.1	17.2
MIL	14.3	15.7	13.7	21.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Shirley	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-15	21	8.0	17.4	-9.44	19.7	16.0	3.71
Dan Dickau	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-15	21	8.0	17.4	-9.44	19.7	16.0	3.71
Theo Ratliff	70	69	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-9	9	17.5	15.8	1.73	16.1	16.1	-0.04
Darvin Ham	36	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-5	1	17.9	16.8	1.10	16.8	15.6	1.22
Ira Newble	40	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.03	-6	-3	-3	16.7	17.7	-0.97	14.9	17.1	-2.18
Mike Wilks	69	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-10	11	17.1	17.5	-0.38	16.4	14.9	1.42
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	70	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-3	-3	17.3	16.8	0.50	17.0	12.5	4.49
Alan Henderson	23	24	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.03	-13	4	-17	17.5	17.1	0.41	16.5	15.9	0.64
Nazr Mohammed	16	17	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	2	-13	17.6	17.1	0.42	11.9	17.1	-5.22
Jason Terry	81	82	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.10	-9	0	-9	17.0	20.8	-3.80	16.1	16.4	-0.34
Dion Glover	21	22	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	0	-9	18.0	17.0	1.03	15.3	16.4	-1.08

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	40	38	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.12	10	-1	11	15.6	16.4	-0.80	16.9	17.5	-0.54
Tim Thomas	61	59	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	5	-1	17.7	12.4	5.27	17.7	16.3	1.40
Anthony Mason	64	66	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	-3	15	14.9	19.4	-4.56	17.4	16.5	0.94
Ray Allen	58	59	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.01	11	-2	13	15.1	18.1	-2.98	17.3	17.0	0.38
Kevin Ollie	41	40	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	2	5	16.3	15.8	0.49	15.8	18.5	-2.66
Toni Kukoc	50	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	-2	13	15.8	16.4	-0.61	16.6	18.1	-1.56
Sam Cassell	46	46	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.15	2	7	-5	15.8	16.3	-0.49	18.5	15.8	2.66
Ervin Johnson	37	36	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.26	-4	13	-17	17.9	14.7	3.15	17.1	17.3	-0.24
Jason Caffey	38	37	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.34	-8	17	-25	16.1	16.0	0.09	17.3	17.2	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.71,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.71,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 100, ATL 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.2%
MIL 81, NOH 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.72,0.71,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.68,0.77,0.84,0.77,0.7,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
UTA 90, ORL 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.95,0.97,1,1	93.4%