NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	7.0 [404]		MVP	LaPhonso Ellis (MIA): +25.8%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	4.5 [119]		LVP	Clifford Robinson (DET): -15.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	16	46%	0.05	0	0.00	7	100%	0.07
Chucky Atkins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	4	87%	0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jon Barry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	4	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Richard Hamilton	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	14	57%	-0.03	2	-0.06	14	93%	0.04
Clifford Robinson	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.00	17	47%	-0.08	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.10	0.15	-0.00	6	100%	0.28	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	14	65%	0.12	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.09	0.10	-0.00	13	47%	0.09	3	-0.07	8	62%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	56%	0.01	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Sean Lampley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Malik Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.03	-0.03	9	30%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.7	26.5	15.0	24.1	2.5	40.2	140.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +68.2%

DET -7.9%

DET -12.7%

MIA +3.7%

DET -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	17.8	15.9	15.5	98.8	103.5	101.6
season	16.8	16.3		101.7	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.6		100.7	97.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.4	20.0	18.1	18.0	17.8
MIA	15.9	16.0	16.1	15.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	34	33	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-8	13	21.0	15.7	5.22	15.7	16.0	-0.26
Chucky Atkins	29	29	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.18	6	-9	15	21.7	15.9	5.80	15.8	15.9	-0.15
Mehmet Okur	34	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-7	11	20.3	16.2	4.10	14.9	16.5	-1.68
Jon Barry	38	37	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	-0.42	7	-10	17	18.5	17.3	1.18	15.6	16.1	-0.47
Michael Curry	30	30	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	6	-15	16.8	18.4	-1.56	16.1	15.7	0.42
Clifford Robinson	70	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-4	5	17.2	20.7	-3.53	16.1	14.9	1.20
Chauncey Billups	57	56	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.28	-9	6	-15	15.9	21.7	-5.80	15.9	15.8	0.15
Ben Wallace	68	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.23	-11	8	-19	17.2	19.9	-2.69	16.2	14.8	1.31
Richard Hamilton	70	70	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.32	-9	6	-15	16.4	24.2	-7.83	16.0	15.4	0.56

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	79	79	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.40	10	-7	17	15.8	17.2	-1.41	17.2	24.6	-7.36
Brian Grant	61	62	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.38	4	-1	5	15.9	15.7	0.27	16.1	22.3	-6.27
Eddie House	12	14	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.30	6	-3	9	13.9	16.2	-2.26	20.1	17.4	2.70
Rasual Butler	69	68	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	-5	13	15.8	16.1	-0.25	16.5	22.7	-6.21
Vladimir Stepania	49	49	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.30	3	0	3	15.8	15.9	-0.15	19.7	15.3	4.42
LaPhonso Ellis	26	27	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.12	1	2	-1	14.5	16.4	-1.90	21.0	16.4	4.64
Mike James	48	48	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	5	-7	16.4	15.2	1.19	19.7	15.4	4.24
Anthony Carter	41	42	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.21	-6	9	-15	15.9	15.8	0.08	17.0	18.6	-1.54
Malik Allen	34	34	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.02	-2	5	-7	16.8	15.2	1.61	15.7	19.2	-3.44
Sean Lampley	6	7	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.01	-7	10	-17	17.2	15.8	1.41	24.6	17.2	7.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.36,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.94,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 85, HOU 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.71,0.94,0.99,1	92.1%
MIN 104, PHX 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.72,0.55,0.72,0.78,0.85,1	91.7%
SAS 75, SAC 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.85,1	91.7%