NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	87		Excitement	7.7 [284]		MVP	Derek Anderson (POR): +13.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	90		Comeback	1.7 [647]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -18.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.02	-0.01	13	67%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	4	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.07
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.01	4	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kevin Willis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.08	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	18	47%	0.00	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.18,-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	0.01	15	36%	-0.09	4	-0.10	3	67%	0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.12	0.00	11	63%	0.18	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.05
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	3	86%	0.10	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arvydas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	7	61%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	15	51%	-0.03	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.08
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	11	46%	-0.01	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.05
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	14	30%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	1.7	30.0	19.6	27.5	3.4	38.2	146.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +1.9%

SAS -2.9%

POR +34.0%

POR +11.5%

POR +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	POR	NBA	SAS	POR	NBA
this game	15.8	18.3	15.5	102.4	107.1	101.6
season	15.7	16.0		102.5	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.0	14.9	18.5	13.4	15.8
POR	17.3	16.4	20.4	19.3	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	37	34	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.27	8	-11	19	12.1	18.7	-6.63	19.9	17.1	2.80
Manu Ginobili	26	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-5	7	11.4	17.8	-6.34	20.4	17.4	2.97
Steve Kerr	23	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-4	5	15.6	15.9	-0.29	18.4	18.2	0.22
David Robinson	41	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	0	-3	17.8	14.0	3.83	16.5	20.0	-3.50
Bruce Bowen	45	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	3	-9	17.4	14.1	3.30	17.0	19.6	-2.61
Steven Smith	47	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.30	0	-3	3	14.4	17.6	-3.22	19.0	17.4	1.60
Tony Parker	62	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	1	-5	15.9	15.6	0.29	18.2	18.4	-0.22
Kevin Willis	24	23	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	5	-13	14.8	16.2	-1.38	19.6	17.8	1.78
Tim Duncan	68	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.27	-3	0	-3	17.0	11.1	5.96	18.1	19.1	-1.05
Stephen Jackson	52	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-1	-1	18.0	12.4	5.56	17.7	19.2	-1.53

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Davis	55	53	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.29	11	-8	19	17.6	19.5	-1.90	18.7	11.0	7.69
Scottie Pippen	64	62	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.29	8	-5	13	17.9	19.5	-1.67	17.7	10.7	7.03
Bonzi Wells	72	72	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.42	1	2	-1	18.7	15.8	2.85	16.1	14.5	1.52
Arvydas Sabonis	37	36	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	-1	5	18.1	18.4	-0.30	15.6	16.0	-0.32
Rasheed Wallace	48	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.27	-1	4	-5	18.0	18.6	-0.54	15.7	16.0	-0.25
Derek Anderson	65	65	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.39	-5	8	-13	17.8	19.8	-1.96	15.7	16.1	-0.43
Damon Stoudamire	14	16	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	-1	5	19.8	18.0	1.81	14.9	16.0	-1.17
Antonio Daniels	25	27	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	4	-5	19.6	17.7	1.89	12.3	17.5	-5.22
Zach Randolph	25	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	8	-13	20.2	17.5	2.69	10.6	18.2	-7.61
Ruben Patterson	15	17	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	4	-5	16.7	18.6	-1.88	14.8	16.1	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.69,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.63,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.68,0.45,0.68,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 120, DEN 126	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.59,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.83,0.67,0.52,0.74,0.7,0.78,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.59,0.67,0.62,0.46,0.43,0.53,1	92.2%
CLE 84, CHA 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.85,0.81,0.71,0.62,0.49,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.57,0.58,1	92.0%
NYK 67, PHI 72	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.58,1	91.7%