NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	105		Excitement	10.3 [52]		MVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): +16.5%
Philadelphia 76ers	104		Comeback	9.2 [112]		LVP	Erick Strickland (IND): -32.0%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.16	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.14,-0.25,-0.35,0.16	-0.12	0.27	-0.01	11	50%	0.53	4	-0.37	12	58%	-0.14
Reggie Miller	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	14	63%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	17	70%	0.14	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.03
Jeff Foster	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Jamaal Tinsley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	-0.02	10	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.08	-0.23	0.00	9	71%	0.13	8	-0.45	6	83%	-0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Coleman	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	11	67%	0.16	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Todd MacCulloch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.05	0.01	10	52%	0.06	4	-0.09	3	67%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.01	8	60%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.05,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.19,-0.09,-0.18,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	27	48%	-0.03	1	-0.02	12	67%	0.03
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.25	-0.24	-0.05	-0.19	0.01	17	37%	-0.24	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.26	-0.26	-0.09	-0.17	-0.01	13	38%	-0.20	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.1	1.7	28.2	14.7	31.2	1.8	34.2	2.5	20.0	157.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	1.9	17.2	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +150.1%

PHI -22.8%

PHI -4.8%

PHI -64.4%

PHI -8.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	PHI	NBA	IND	PHI	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.5	105.0	101.0	101.6
season	15.4	15.3		102.2	102.1
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.9	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
IND	13.0	16.9	14.0	18.9	16.3	15.6
PHI	15.2	17.4	15.4	15.2	15.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	87	89	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.34	15	-14	29	15.6	15.3	0.34	15.4	18.1	-2.71
Jermaine O'Neal	91	93	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.41	5	-4	9	15.6	16.0	-0.44	15.6	17.3	-1.74
Reggie Miller	74	76	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.39	-1	2	-3	15.4	16.3	-0.96	15.6	16.0	-0.37
Al Harrington	77	82	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	-6	13	15.3	16.7	-1.37	15.8	15.3	0.50
Erick Strickland	81	83	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.09	4	-3	7	15.4	16.4	-0.95	15.0	18.9	-4.00
Ron Mercer	46	46	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.37	-12	13	-25	16.5	14.8	1.71	15.0	16.3	-1.32
Jeff Foster	14	14	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	5	-9	15.9	15.5	0.38	18.8	15.2	3.54
Fred Jones	1	2	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	3	-5	3.0	15.7	-12.73	0.5	16.0	-15.53
Jamaal Tinsley	10	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	5	-9	16.4	15.5	0.89	22.6	15.0	7.61
Austin Croshere	10	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	5	-9	16.4	15.5	0.89	22.6	15.0	7.61

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenny Thomas	72	71	0.32	-0.82	1.13	0.26	2	-3	5	15.9	15.3	0.67	15.7	15.2	0.51
Derrick Coleman	70	70	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.12	6	-7	13	17.1	12.7	4.42	16.4	13.7	2.76
Aaron McKie	36	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.29	7	-8	15	15.1	16.1	-0.99	16.2	15.3	0.87
Todd MacCulloch	11	10	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.11	-9	8	-17	12.0	16.2	-4.17	14.2	15.8	-1.56
Greg Buckner	58	59	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.44	8	-9	17	14.9	16.8	-1.82	15.9	15.2	0.69
Brian Skinner	27	24	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.60	3	-4	7	16.2	15.6	0.62	14.1	16.1	-2.00
Allen Iverson	93	90	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	4	-9	15.0	22.6	-7.61	15.5	16.4	-0.89
Eric Snow	85	84	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	3	-7	16.5	12.0	4.52	15.7	14.8	0.94
Keith Van Horn	63	59	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.43	-13	12	-25	15.5	16.1	-0.57	14.6	17.0	-2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.17,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.54,0.32,0.54,0.77,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 110, MEM 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.25,0.1,0.16,0.25,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.59,0	90.5%
MIA 95, CLE 93	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.18,0	89.1%
WAS 147, LAL 141	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.23,0.12,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.21,0.14,0.22,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.13,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.16,0	89.1%