NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	94		Excitement	6.1 [554]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +10.8%
Los Angeles Clippers	86		Comeback	1.4 [830]		LVP	Michael Olowokandi (LAC): -24.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.07	0.02	-0.02	14	63%	0.11	0	0.00	13	85%	0.05
Bruce Bowen	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.01	9	59%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	5	27%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.13	0.02	-0.03	24	44%	0.03	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.03
Malik Rose	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	11	55%	0.03	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	13	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.06
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tremaine Fowlkes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	16	42%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	0.01	18	50%	0.02	5	-0.16	8	87%	0.04
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	14	35%	-0.11	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.20	-0.07	-0.01	19	30%	-0.13	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.8	30.2	16.0	30.6	1.8	39.0	143.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +55.0%

LAC -4.3%

SAS +2.4%

LAC -7.8%

SAS +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAC	NBA	SAS	LAC	NBA
this game	15.5	15.1	15.5	100.0	91.5	101.6
season	15.7	15.4		102.5	100.2
opponent	15.4	15.4		104.3	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.0	16.1	15.0	13.3	15.5
LAC	14.8	15.2	16.3	14.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	62	60	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	-1	10	15.9	14.7	1.28	14.9	15.6	-0.75
Bruce Bowen	75	75	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	2	4	16.1	13.2	2.87	15.0	15.6	-0.62
Manu Ginobili	32	31	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	4	0	12.7	17.0	-4.26	15.0	15.2	-0.21
Tim Duncan	82	83	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	1	6	15.0	18.7	-3.63	15.0	16.1	-1.08
Steve Kerr	26	26	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	1	6	14.6	15.9	-1.28	16.7	14.5	2.20
Malik Rose	39	41	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.18	1	7	-6	16.3	14.9	1.42	16.4	14.2	2.22
Tony Parker	68	68	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.15	1	7	-6	15.9	14.6	1.28	14.5	16.7	-2.20
Stephen Jackson	58	58	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	5	-2	15.8	15.0	0.81	15.3	14.9	0.36
Steven Smith	23	24	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	5	-2	16.7	15.1	1.64	15.4	15.1	0.32
Danny Ferry	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	10	-12	13.0	15.5	-2.53	0.0	15.3	-15.30
Kevin Willis	4	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.04	1	7	-6	10.7	15.7	-4.96	12.0	15.2	-3.24

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Rooks	7	6	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-7	6	9.9	15.6	-5.71	5.0	16.2	-11.22
Melvin Ely	18	18	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.08	-5	-3	-2	15.1	15.2	-0.10	15.9	15.4	0.55
Tremaine Fowlkes	22	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-5	2	16.4	14.7	1.66	15.2	15.6	-0.36
Keyon Dooling	30	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-2	-4	16.6	14.5	2.15	14.5	16.0	-1.52
Andre Miller	64	63	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-6	4	14.5	16.6	-2.15	16.0	14.5	1.52
Michael Olowokandi	74	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-7	6	15.8	12.6	3.16	16.4	12.0	4.45
Lamar Odom	86	86	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.31	-2	-6	4	15.0	16.1	-1.08	15.0	20.4	-5.33
Corey Maggette	89	90	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.22	-9	1	-10	15.2	14.8	0.36	15.5	14.7	0.78
Elton Brand	80	80	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.26	-11	3	-14	14.7	17.5	-2.77	15.8	13.6	2.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 88, PHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.12,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.07,0,0,0	94.0%
MIN 88, CHA 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.38,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%
POR 89, HOU 79	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.15,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.07,0.03,0,0	93.5%