NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	87		Excitement	4.1 [971]		MVP	Keon Clark (SAC): +3.7%
Denver Nuggets	76		Comeback	1.3 [1155]		LVP	Nikoloz Tskitishvili (DEN): -14.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	16	63%	0.11	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	11	36%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	14	45%	0.00	2	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Jim Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	8	25%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	10	50%	-0.02	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Vlade Divac	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.18	-0.01	-0.05	8	20%	-0.10	3	-0.04	4	0%	-0.06

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	14	64%	0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Vincent Yarbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Savovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	10	58%	0.04	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	5	50%	0.02	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	22	39%	-0.09	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.02	7	14%	-0.07	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.7	25.5	16.3	26.3	2.5	32.5	129.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +30.2%

DEN -0.8%

SAC +0.5%

SAC +19.1%

SAC +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.1	15.8	15.5	89.7	79.2	101.6
season	14.0	15.7		104.4	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.7		99.4	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.3	16.2	11.7	15.5	14.1
DEN	14.9	17.3	16.7	14.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	70	69	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.04	20	-9	29	13.4	15.7	-2.24	15.6	16.3	-0.74
Keon Clark	73	72	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.00	17	-6	23	13.3	16.2	-2.87	15.7	16.1	-0.37
Peja Stojakovic	66	66	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.02	17	-6	23	13.7	14.7	-1.01	16.0	15.4	0.54
Doug Christie	72	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.06	14	-3	17	13.7	15.0	-1.33	15.6	16.4	-0.82
Vlade Divac	78	79	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.22	7	4	3	13.8	15.1	-1.24	15.8	15.9	-0.17
Jim Jackson	34	34	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.17	-4	15	-19	15.3	13.4	1.91	15.7	15.9	-0.19
Damon Jones	32	31	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.13	-3	14	-17	15.4	13.4	2.02	16.7	15.4	1.39
Hedo Turkoglu	37	35	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	18	-25	14.8	13.6	1.27	15.5	16.0	-0.54
Gerald Wallace	13	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.17	-6	17	-23	14.5	14.0	0.47	15.9	15.8	0.13
Lawrence Funderburke	10	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	11	-11	18.1	13.6	4.51	17.1	15.7	1.45

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Predrag Savovic	14	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.01	-2	-9	7	13.8	16.1	-2.36	11.7	14.5	-2.82
Mark Blount	16	15	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-7	3	16.9	15.6	1.29	15.9	13.7	2.23
John Crotty	20	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-6	1	16.3	15.7	0.63	14.3	14.0	0.36
Vincent Yarbrough	22	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-7	3	14.5	16.2	-1.63	13.1	14.4	-1.26
Donnell Harvey	48	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-13	15	15.7	15.9	-0.10	15.0	13.1	1.83
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	44	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-9	7	14.6	16.8	-2.19	13.6	14.4	-0.76
Ryan Bowen	33	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-8	5	15.9	15.7	0.21	12.9	14.6	-1.73
Junior Harrington	62	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	-7	3	16.1	15.3	0.83	14.5	13.2	1.32
Juwan Howard	81	81	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-8	5	15.6	16.8	-1.18	14.1	13.9	0.21
Nene	62	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	6	-23	16.3	14.8	1.52	13.7	14.6	-0.87
Rodney White	78	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.11	-13	2	-15	16.3	13.4	2.90	14.3	12.8	1.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.29,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 104, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	95.9%
NYK 95, NJN 71	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
OKC 116, GSW 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.15,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%