NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	112		Excitement	3.6 [1062]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +11.2%
Denver Nuggets	93		Comeback	1.0 [1199]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -13.5%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	26	66%	0.18	4	-0.07	7	100%	0.04
Shaquille O'Neal	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	-0.00	15	69%	0.12	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kareem Rush	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	5	90%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	70%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	4	87%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.03	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	0.00	0.06	6	67%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	5	50%	-0.01	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.00	-0.02	9	67%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	10	67%	0.06	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	7	74%	0.05	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vincent Yarbrough	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	12	33%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	7	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.03	16	51%	-0.04	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	7	28%	-0.09	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	1.0	31.1	15.7	23.3	3.4	27.5	129.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +36.8%

LAL +6.6%

LAL +10.6%

DEN -4.2%

LAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	16.6	15.5	120.4	100.0	101.6
season	15.4	15.7		105.0	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.1		99.4	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	12.8	14.1	16.2	14.6	14.4
DEN	17.2	15.9	15.8	17.5	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	62	63	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.06	22	-3	25	14.9	13.4	1.53	17.2	15.3	1.86
Kobe Bryant	69	71	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.04	16	3	13	14.1	15.2	-1.18	16.6	16.6	0.00
Robert Horry	49	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	13	-7	14.4	14.3	0.11	16.8	16.4	0.36
Brian Shaw	22	22	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.01	8	11	-3	14.2	14.4	-0.25	17.0	16.5	0.59
Mark Madsen	36	35	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	9	1	14.8	14.1	0.65	15.7	17.2	-1.50
Derek Fisher	69	68	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.02	8	11	-3	14.3	14.5	-0.11	16.4	17.2	-0.89
Devean George	30	31	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	14	-9	12.1	15.4	-3.31	17.0	16.4	0.61
Kareem Rush	26	25	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.04	6	13	-7	15.4	14.0	1.45	16.8	16.5	0.34
Tracy Murray	24	23	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.10	8	11	-3	15.3	14.0	1.29	16.6	16.6	-0.03
Rick Fox	46	45	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	19	-19	14.8	14.0	0.76	15.9	17.3	-1.40
Slava Medvedenko	32	32	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.11	6	13	-7	13.7	14.7	-1.05	16.8	16.5	0.34

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Bryant	9	9	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.05	3	-22	25	15.8	16.7	-0.90	17.2	14.1	3.15
Donnell Harvey	54	53	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	-17	15	16.4	16.9	-0.48	14.1	14.7	-0.66
John Crotty	44	45	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.15	1	-20	21	15.1	17.9	-2.80	14.6	14.1	0.48
Ryan Bowen	18	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	-9	-1	18.3	16.2	2.16	14.1	14.5	-0.40
Rodney White	52	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-13	7	15.8	17.6	-1.86	14.4	14.3	0.05
Mark Blount	26	25	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.14	-13	-6	-7	18.0	16.0	2.01	14.2	14.4	-0.24
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	57	57	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.03	-8	-11	3	16.2	17.2	-1.03	13.9	15.1	-1.15
Vincent Yarbrough	41	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.10	-13	-6	-7	17.6	15.8	1.86	14.3	14.4	-0.05
Junior Harrington	49	48	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.20	-20	1	-21	17.9	15.1	2.80	14.1	14.6	-0.48
Nene	43	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.03	-12	-7	-5	16.4	16.7	-0.28	14.1	14.6	-0.44
Juwan Howard	72	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.02	-15	-4	-11	16.3	17.6	-1.33	14.9	12.5	2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.27,0.39,0.36,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.33,0.22,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 117, MIN 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.33,0.35,0.23,0.19,0.3,0.2,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
GSW 121, UTA 95	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
LAL 103, SAC 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.17,0.21,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%